Atari Stock Holders Talk!
From: Fred Horvat (ap748@cleveland.Freenet.Edu)
Date: 09/20/94-01:07:25 PM Z
From: ap748@cleveland.Freenet.Edu (Fred Horvat)
Subject: Atari Stock Holders Talk!
Date: Tue Sep 20 13:07:25 1994
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************
Topic 44 Thu Dec 17, 1992
BRIAN.H [ST~SysOp] at 00:41 EST
Sub: ATARI Stock Holders, Let's talk!!
Here is the place for discussion and information for stock holders and other
interested parties of any news and events concerning ATARI stock.
206 message(s) total.
************
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 1 Tue Mar 08, 1994
J.BRENNER1 [See Flat] at 19:19 EST
Bob Brodie,
>Having said that (and it was posted in fun, btw), I would like to ask you
why
>you would be so impressed with Microsoft becoming a Jaguar developer? They
>have no track record with Sega, Nintendo, Neo-Geo, or any other home based
>system that I'm aware of. I've been in arcades, but have yet to see a Video
>Game produced by Microsoft there. In short...I don't see a reason to bring
>them on board for a game system.
Well, one good reason would be that Microsoft has just bought out
Soft-Image. The most advanced graphics animation software developer
in the world. Can we all say Jurasic Parc. Soft-mage is also very
advanced in virtual reality research and development, and they are
also working wacky audio stuff to make you fall off your chair when
you here the rocket fly by.
Was that one or three reasons?
John B.
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Message 2 Tue Mar 08, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:42 EST
Bob B_ - -
As you said, Atari "will go to the equity markets to raise cash." As I tried
to explain to Tom of ICD, to an investor, "equity" means value which is left
over for the owners after all other claims are accounted for. In practice,
this means common stock. Guess I didn't explain very clearly.
What you obviously mean is "capital markets", a more general term which
includes all forms of long term funds like bonds, loans from big insurance
companies (if they see Atari as credit worthy :-)), and/or, yes, common stock,
and etc. This gives Atari a wide range of sources.
As for "doing my research" to find out who some of these companies are in the
press release ..., Bob, you don't understand. I don't care. It would make no
difference to my Atari analysis if I knew them or not. Whoever they are,
whatever capability they may or may not bring to Jaguar software, makes no
difference to how I read the chart, and all the facets, good or bad, are
reflected in the chart. I just have to read it properly. Of course, I do
_hope_ they will do great things, but that's besides the point.
To change the subject, .... nah, I don't care to get started once again on
_that_ stuff. It belogs in some other place.
--Sandy
PS: I didn't realize last night that AEO was posting the entire press release.
If I had realized that, I would not have put the list up here.
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Message 3 Tue Mar 08, 1994
R.WATSON15 [Wayne Watson] at 22:28 EST
You will be able to buy video games in a brown paper wrapper now.
:-)
Bob,
Thanks for the reply. I read something and thought something was
going to happen that may affect the stock somehow. Just wondering
what it was, etc.
If Microsoft bought out a company big in the Virtual reality area,
you can forget about small headphone type devices to wear. They will
now be bloated helmets bigger than motorcycle helmets and require an
mainframe to drive the graphics fast enough. :-)
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Message 4 Tue Mar 08, 1994
AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 22:34 EST
Sandy,
| PS: I didn't realize last night that AEO was posting the entire press |
release. If I had realized that, I would not have put the list up here.
This BB is a place to share news. The press release is news, and should be
shared. AEO does not have the exclusive right to bring out Atari news. We just
-try- to be first. :)
In other words, you did nothing wrong! Heaven forbid!
Besides, AEO hasn't been released yet.
--Travis
P.S. As a favor to thos of us who get confused when all of the financial
neepery gets deep here (not that I'm saying it shouldn't!...), could
you and any other poster please add a tagline to your posts that
sums up the "Good news/Bad news" aspect of any -news- you're passing
along? After reading some posts in here, I'm not sure if what you're
saying is "Good for Atari" or "Bad for Atari."
Just a thought. :)
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Message 5 Tue Mar 08, 1994
TOWNS [John] at 22:51 EST
Well, another smash sports game was just released for the Genesis
and the Super NES: NBA Jam from Acclaim. Notice I didn't include
Jaguar. <sigh>
Bob.. please tell me someone at Atari is doing something about this
situation. There are ALOT of people out there like me who play
sports games (football and basketball mainly) and NOTHING but sports
games! According to what I read somewhere recently, if you ignore
the sports game segment of the market, you are loosing about 40% of
all game sales! That's a significant piece of the pie if you ask
me.
I love the Jaguar and I am proud to say that I had something to do
with making it happen. However, I won't put down my hard earned cash
until Atari shows me it is going to give me sports games.
Please, Bob.. tell me you are working on it.
-- John
PS. John is saving his nickels, hoping that Bob is going to come
through for him!
BTW.. If you haven't seen NBA Jams, check it out. Pretty cool
game!
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Message 6 Tue Mar 08, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 23:11 EST
Dr. Fenrear,
Although I am not certain about other retailers, Toys R Us stated their
position soon after Sega initiated their ratings scheme. Toys R Us will not
buy or sell any game that is rated MA-17 (Which is why you won't find Lethal
Enforcers in TRU). I expect this trend to hold when the "across the board"
ratings are initiated such that any games not intended for children or teens
will not be carried.
I think the press release should have included information about Atari's
online offer of Tempest 2000. It's things like this that will make Atari's
userbase more online conscious (anything to save a buck) and they'll already
be prepared to make that jump into the "Software Seas" when the modem adaptor
is available.
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
because after tooling on the internet, "Information Superhighway" sounds
_too_ organized...
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Message 7 Tue Mar 08, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:49 EST
Well, STalk The Market has the right spirit. It yelled out tonight to "BUY"
ATC. Yes, it does this from time to time.
Why? It seems that downtrend line we've been shaking our fist at is at 6 9/16
tonight and ATC closed at 6 5/8 -- that's 10/16. STM can work with 16ths, and
it sees a penetration of the line. However, I've got to look at it in terms
of 1/8's, so I don't see the breakout. Am I blind, or is STM wishing? On
Wednesday, that line is at 6 1/2, so maybe....?
Anyway, the 13 day cycle is doing its danged best to help the 40 day cycle
demonstrate an upturn in the '120' day cycle. Got it? It's simple. That 13
day cycle has got to be gaining back its amplitude, because it is bucking the
downslop of the 40 day cycle -- remember, it last bottomed out about Feb 8.
This may be good news all round, because it could mean the return of
volatility -- ie amplitude -- in the next 40 day cycle repetition as well.
Whatever, this is one more feather on the side of the balance that says the
trend -- ie the '120' day cycle -- is slowly turning up. A close at 6 3/4 or
above this week would add a whole decagram, although it would still be a 'high
risk' signal. A kilogram would be getting above 8 1/8, possibly in the next
40 day cycle....? The tea leaves are indicating this has a half decent
chance.
Did I hear someone say "drunk"? No, just giddy. STM hasn't said "BUY ATC"
for a long time, and it shocked me. But, STM isn't always right.
--Sandy
PS: There is something else interesting going on just beneath the surface.
But more about that tomorrow. It's not exactly new.
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Message 8 Wed Mar 09, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] at 00:37 EST
John,
You mean that you won't be buying Star Raiders for the Jaguar?
- TOM -
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Message 9 Wed Mar 09, 1994
F.CUCCI [goodwrench] at 00:43 EST
Has anyone ever heard of TH*Q, a software developer that _rumor_ has it that
they might want to develop for Jaguar, and also what ever happened with SFAN
and Atari
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Message 10 Wed Mar 09, 1994
J.BRENNER1 [See Flat] at 01:01 EST
Towns,
wow.....you're just like one of us now. ;-)
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Message 11 Wed Mar 09, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 02:46 EST
Travis - -
There I go and confess my sin, and you tell me it's OK. I'll have to come to
you more often. It's good for my psyche :-).
Let's see now. You are getting confused over my turnip leaves? That's a new
one. While the day, hardly passes where I don't see the message of the tea
leaves -- I like to drink tea -- I'm afraid I don't often get a look at turnip
leaves. Would they make a palatable beverage?
"Huh?" you say, "Has this guy stepped over the brink at last?" Not yet. It's
just that the only definition for "neep" (as in your "financial neepery") that
I can find in my dictionary is "a turnip".
Now, if you want me to be even clearer than I already am (!) in my T/A
conclusions, you will have to define your own terminology more clearly. The
reason I devoted most of my current GEnieLamp column to an introduction to
cycle analysis, was so that my T/A could be more easily understood. :-).
Seriously, I can't claim to be passing along anything as serious as "news",
even "-news-". The last thing I would do, anyway, is adopt a 'recipe-like'
approach, which is what you are suggesting. I can only describe what I think
I see. You will have to characterize it. (NO, not that way, please!)
--Sandy
PS: The Dow Jones news wire today listed ATC among "Hot Stocks to Watch"
because of yesterday's announcement of 48 added developers. So, at least they
are impressed.
PS II: It seems that SEGA Channal -- that darling of SEGA, Tele-
Communications, Inc., and Time Warner -- has made another step forward with
their dedicated Sega Genesis based interactive TV channel. They signed on
another affiliate: Adelphia. Now why didn't TW push Atari in that direction
with the Jaguar?
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Message 12 Wed Mar 09, 1994
AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 05:38 EST
//// Tom,
Herasy! Star Raiders should be the pack-in, if for name alone! :)
//// Mr.(?) Goodwrench,
The only thing I know about TH*Q, is they publish/do a lot of movie/tv license
titles. "Wayne's World" comes to mind. Don't ask me why. :)
I haven't heard anything more with SFAN since the initial announcements about
three years ago. Too bad.
//// Sandy,
| There I go and confess my sin, and you tell me it's OK. I'll have to
| come to you more often. It's good for my psyche :-).
The most I'll ask of you is one Our Father, two "Go 'Noles!" and a round of
Margaritas! ;)
| -- I like to drink tea --
Me too. Twinings' Earl Grey, Decaf - hot.
| at turnip leaves. Would they make a palatable beverage?
Yes. Although it's not considered a beverage, the juice cooked off of turnip
leaves is called "pot liquor" - very good with cornbread. I prefer collard
greens to turnips, though.
| It's just that the only definition for "neep" (as in your "financial
| neepery") that I can find in my dictionary is "a turnip".
Oops. "Neepery" is techno-slang. It refers to the use of excessive jargon.
(The jargon itself is "neep" or sometimes referred to as "neep-neep". And
yes, this means my first use of the word "neepery" was an example of
neepery.)
Darlah's BB here is filled with computer neepery - Atari neepery. This topic
is filled with financial neepery. Neepery is not bad, only confusing to those
not in on it.
| The last thing I would do, anyway, is adopt a 'recipe-like' approach,
| which is what you are suggesting.
No, no, no. Please don't change the way you write. I was only suggesting that
after someone here posts several paragraphs of "uptrending lines" and "equity
market" and "floating bonds" - or whatever - you throw in a capsule "How does
this affect ATC stock" summary. Even if it is only 6 words: "And Travis, it's
good for Atari." :)
--Travis
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Message 13 Wed Mar 09, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:42 EST
TOWNS - Well, Iguana Software (who did NBA Jam for Acclaim) is a Jaguar
developer and if Atari can't get Acclaim to sign on as a developer, they'll go
directly to Williams/Midway (did you see "WMS Industries" on the new list?).
K.DRAKE - Maybe after Toys 'R' Us realizes all the sales they're losing (like
Nintendo's realizing how the SNES is waning in popularity!), they'll change
their policy. On CNBC Monday, one of the Toys 'R' Us execs was on and he just
said that TRU's policy, after the rating system goes into effect, will be that
they WON'T carry titles that AREN'T rated (by the way, Toys 'R' Us in my neck
of the woods DOES carry LETHAL ENFORCERS -- one even still had copies of NIGHT
TRAP last weekend!!!).
Besides, if people think that a few of the larger retailers refusing to carry
some titles will eliminate the market for them, they're living in their own
little self-righteous fantasy world!
F.CUCCI - I remember posting a year or more ago that SFAN was pretty much dead
in the water and I got jumped on for saying that. Well, it STILL ain't here
and now I'm laughing at all the guys who gave me a hard time! I'm sure
SOMEONE will come around insisting that it's still around and that they're
just looking for financing -- which they've been doing for about 2 years or
more!
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Message 14 Wed Mar 09, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:33 EST
Who or what is SFAN?
Carson
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Message 15 Wed Mar 09, 1994
J.HICKEY6 at 10:01 EST
Good News/Bad News(micro-fundamentals)
Good news - I walked into Blockbuster in San Carlos, CA and was immediately
struck by a Jaguar display.
Bad news - it was only cardboard.
MGN - they had three titles on display
MBN - they only had a few in stock
YMBN - the clerks I talked to had not sold any Jaguars.
Jack
Tip: Buy on BN - sell on GN
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Message 16 Wed Mar 09, 1994PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 11:42 EST
Jack,
Generally (from correlating some of my Fourier charts and GN/BN info), you'd
wanna sell in anticipation of the GN, not right when it is 'official'. By the
time Joe Schmoe hears about it (via TV, papers, etc) it is usually to late, or
close to being too late.
--Kevin
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Message 17 Wed Mar 09, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] at 14:58 EST
Well, I am back in Sandy. I didn't feel right standing on the sidelines
during the first Bull move in a long time.
I have a PC with lots of possibilities using SuperCharts. Let me know if
there is something special you would like run on ATC.
- TOM -
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Message 18 Wed Mar 09, 1994
TOWNS [John] at 16:00 EST
I have _always_ been one of you. I was an Atarian long before I worked
for the company. I really like the Jaguar alot and want to see it
become a huge success. If I didn't care, I wouldn't say anything.
I know Atari can do it. They just have to focus their limited resources
very carefully to make sure that they cover the right bases.
I wish them luck!
-- John
PS. The stock is up 3/4 right now to 7 3/8. Looking good.
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Message 19 Wed Mar 09, 1994
BOB-BRODIE [Atari Corp] at 18:14 EST
Towns,
We're working on it. :)
Sandy,
Oh...
I still like to drink tea, too. Watched the original Star Trek: The Next
Generation episode last night. Gave me a hankering for some Earl Grey.
Goodwrench-
TH*Q also has a lot of people that used to be with our Chicago office.
Re SFAN...don't get me started! Suffice it to say that they have yet to air a
single program.
Travis,
Real men don't drink their Earl Grey decaff'ed.
<grin>
All,
I still strongly encourage you to expend some time researching the who's and
why's of the recent press release. I think, perhaps wrongly, that you should
have some kind of an understanding about our company actions if you hold a
position in our company.
regards,
Bob Brodie
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Message 20 Wed Mar 09, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 18:56 EST
Thanks Travis (and Sandy!)
Your messages 161 (Sandy) & 162 (Trav.) prove just how entertaining this area
can be!
;-)
Matt
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Message 21 Wed Mar 09, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 19:24 EST
Dr. Hufoggy,
WMS Industries is Williams? I was wondering if it was Williams brothers but
that didn't sound right. That is good news indeed.
I have a video tape that was distributed by TRU-TV from the videogames buyer
to _every_ store. In that videotape (which I will admit may be old news since
it was in Sept. of last year) the buyer stated that Toys 'R' Us will not carry
Sega games that are rated MA-17. I took that to mean that any future games
that were rated as "adult" would not be carried by TRU. A lot of TRU's have
Night Trap in stock but they're not supposed to be displayed (they were pulled
from the shelves awhile back). As far as Lethal Enforcers (GEN and CD), I have
no idea why they've got them in stock. <:-}
Re: lost sales...
TRU is more concerned about their image vs. lost sales. In my area, BB guns
are big business but TRU doesn't carry them _or_ slingshots. Right now, MA-17
games make up a _small_ portion of total videogame sales so excluding them is
helping their image more than it's hurting their bottom line. Will TRU ever go
nationwide with carrying MA-17 games? As long as there's a vocal group who is
against it, no.
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
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Message 22 Wed Mar 09, 1994
AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 19:32 EST
//// Bob,
Strangely, the decaffed Earl Grey -tastes- better than the regular. Maybe it's
the toxic chemicals they use in the decaf process that does it.
<cue background singers>
OH NO! WE'RE GONNA GET SUED!
<thank you, background singers>
//// Matt,
Just wait till you see us in re-runs. :)
--Travis
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Message 23 Wed Mar 09, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 19:45 EST
Jack - -
Your 'GN/BN(micro-fundamentals)' is great stuff. Keep it up; it will make
many here happy.
Re the March expiration date, my copies of the NY Times occasionally list
March options with a 7 1/2 strike price. I don't think there are any Aprils,
but I have some May 7 1/2 Calls. If things work out, they may yet yield a
gain. I anticipate selling them about mid-May, maybe even let them expire
which may save a commission fee.
Looks like the 'trend' has indeed changed. I'll be back on this after
updating later tonight. That's 'GOOD NEWS FOR ATARI' Travis! The trend
change, that is, not my being back later. Off hand, however, I look for a
relatively weak week next week, with the price falling back. If that happens,
that will also be 'GOOD NEWS FOR ATARI' Travis. BTW, that "pot liquor" stuff
sounds interesting, sort of illegal, which lends a sense of risk. ;-)
--Sandy
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Message 24 Wed Mar 09, 1994
I.POSSEHL1 at 23:14 EST
Is this the breakout we've been waiting for? Or shall we look for another?
Will we see an immediate jump? Or will we have to wait 2-6 weeks. (o weaks?)
Sheesh... how does a guy use a perenthesis when he doesn't what to smile, wink
or show some other emotion? Anyhow... My guess is that we wait a few weeks
then comes a nice sharp rise. Followed in 2-3 more weeks by another nice rise.
BTW: Tea. Earl Grey. Hot! for me too. English Breakfast is pretty good as
well.
-> Iver
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Message 25 Wed Mar 09, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 23:21 EST
In Message 53 on Mon Feb 28, 1994 (Several posts; read all the way!?)
SLP [Scott] said:
-| You just hop on the train and ride for a while, hoping that you get off
-| a stop or two before everyone else. Charts are great for showing where
-| you were, but that is all they can do.
If you charted the speed and/or the acceleration of the train, you could
ANTICIPATE the arrival of a STOP when the acceleration passed through zero and
became negative at the same time the speed began to decrease. If you were
interested in "jumping train" before everyone else, this chart would let you
know when the engineer was slowing down or preparing to stop....
Not a bad analogy...
================
In Message 37 on Sun Feb 27, 1994
M.LYDA [mike] said:
-| T/A is B.S. It works because there are millions of other people
-| following the same charts like lemmings.
Probably quite true! But why scoff it... why use it and be on the winning side
when everyone else drives the price one way or another? (On the other hand,
don't -- we techies need you guys to buy/sell our stocks to...)
I move that all this diatribe about tech analysis is good or bad be tabled, or
taken to the Investment RT where it wastes hours of download time day after
day, and neither side EVER gets convinced they're wrong.
THIS TOPIC IS SUPPOSED TO BE TALKING ABOUT ATARI STOCK, by stockHOLDERS.
=====================
In Message 33 on Sat Feb 26, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said:
-| IMHO, trading on the basis of a Dorfman Report is foolish.
Not if one waits for it to peak and then shorts the Dorfman reccomendation!
===============
In Message 15 on Fri Feb 25, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] said:
-| By the way, 3DO stock DROPPED 2 today! Actually, 3DO's stock hasn't
-| gained any from the announcement of the REAL 3DO MultiPlayer's $200
-| price reduction. ------------
That's because _I_ bought some of it! If I buy, it goes down; if I sell, it
goes into a runaway breakout! (5 in the last five days...)
Jim W2JC in Northern NJ
--... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.-
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Message 26 Thu Mar 10, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 00:57 EST
In Message 130 on Mon Mar 07, 1994
DARLAH [RT~SYSOP] said:
-| The extensive blood and gore are getting negative press up here in
-| regards to video games. Kids appear to like it, parents do not, as a
-| whole. ------------
Perhaps not exactly _independent_ events!
============
In Message 108 on Sat Mar 05, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] said:
-| How high? 8 is a possibility in the short term though if it doesn't
-| reach 8 by Wed., I see it getting soft again.
Not bad, Sir! It's Wed evening as I type this, and we've broken out to 7 1/2
with chart formations that look like their almost straight up! Enough so I
jumped in at 10 a.m. Wed. before leaving for work and by the time I got set up
on my desk it was already at 7 1/2... maybe your only a day off?
Jim W2JC in Northern NJ
--... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.-
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Message 27 Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:02 EST
Bob B_ - -
>> I think, perhaps wrongly, that you should have some kind of an
understanding about our company actions if you hold a position in our
company.<<
You are not wrong. Most people must have some fundamental knowledge of their
investments -- even I get to know some of that stuff, by osmosis. It not only
lends a feeling of comfort, of having made a decision based on "analysis", but
it substitutes for a lack of understanding of the T/A aspects. It has taken
me many years to feel comfortable with T/A, so I can substitute T/A for
actually "knowing" anything ;-). One caution however,anyone among the great
public who thinks they might actually "understand" what Atari is up to, had
better think again. IMVHO that is.
--Sandy
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Message 28 Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:03 EST
Well, here's tonights "neepery" -- and that's _not_ turnips!
ATC rose to 7 1/2 before settling back to close at 7 1/4. It did this on
relatively high volume -- made the 5 most active AMEX list once again. A very
exciting day. Some observations follow:
1) The target projection after the penetration of the much discussed
downtrend line, based on classical T/A patterns, was 7 1/2 - 7 5/8. This has
now been satisfied -- in one day!
2) The only remaining unpenetrated overhead resistance/trendline that I have
is a '2/3 Speed Line', a concept I discussed back last Sept/Oct. Funny thing,
the present one passed through 7 1/2 today. Coincidence?
3) About 2 weeks ago, I mentioned the "hint" of a 20 day cycle, although I
could not verify it. Well, it can now be seen more clearly. It bottomed out
and turned up Feb 1-2. Thus, the 13 day cycle, now in its 3rd or 4th day (ie
up), may be riding on a 20 day cycle, now nearing its peak. That may be why
the 13 day has shown such strength. Both are riding on the 40 day cycle,
which is now in its 30th day (ie a downslope). The combination, however, has
clearly demonstrated that the next longer cycle -- 120 days or more, and which
constitutes the 'trend' -- is turning up.
The 20 day cycle will turn down in the next few days. The 13 day cycle
still has a few days on the upside; it should turn down this weekend. Next
week, therefore, will have all 3 cycles going down to a multiple bottom about
March 20 give or take a few days, with the trend moving up. The net result
should be a fall back, probably under 7, maybe as low as 6 1/2. After that,
hold onto your seat; the rocket should take off. (That 8 1/8 is still there
to mark the final confirmation that the trend is indeed up; this could
represent an obstacle, but it looks more and more like it will be a
confirmation.) That is my interpretation of the cycle model.
4) Volatility looks like it is returning. This would correspond with
increasing amplitudes for the cycles. The fractal model has run out of its
low volatility trading range period, as discussed in the past, and which is
quite evident on the chart.
5) Last night, I mentioned that something is going on beneath the surface.
On the days when I have the opportunity to get several quotes, I have noticed
that the price has tended to rise in brief spurts of relatively heavy volume.
Then the volume reduces substantially, and the price falls back slowly. I
have mentioned this before, especially when the price/volume spurt comes close
to the end of the day. This seems to me to be clear evidence of either short
covering by some large traders, or quiet accumulation by a few optimistic
investors, or both. This subsurface activity is what has kept me on the
optimistic side for the past several weeks, in spite of surface evidence that
pessimism might be more appropriate. It was the lenghty prelude to what
happened today.
6) Finally, we cannot overlook all those remaining short sellers who may be
lining up to bail out. This could push the price up much further and much
faster than projected above. This would represent a true "squeeze", and could
be awesome in its power.
Let me once again remind anybody who may have an idea that I know what I'm
talking about, that I don't have any better view into the future than anybody
else. Buying, selling, or holding is your own decision entirely, and should
definitley _not_ be based on my musings. If you have some doubt, stay out.
--Sandy
PS: Updated charts -- through Friday -- should be posted by Monday in the next
GEnieLamp mid-month Special Report on Atari. 'STalk The Market' screamed "BUY
ATARI" last night, so these charts must be pretty smart.
------------
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Message 29 Thu Mar 10, 1994
M.BILINSKI at 01:29 EST
AEO.MAG
Sorry but they don't use toxic chemicals to decaf Earl Grey; they use physical
methods to do that (a modified "freeze-dried" extraction they use for coffee).
Besides, even if they _did_ use some chemicals in the process, they'd make
damn sure there isn't any left in there. When in doubt, ask a chemist... :-)
Topic cops
Sorry 'bout that, but I was weak for a second there <G>
Bob B.
You've been talking for a while about "doing research" about the names of
those companies that are now officially Jag developpers. Two things to say: 1-
Where can we look them up? 2-I think it would've taken you less time to tell
us right away instead of repeating the "do your homework" thing. (Just feelin'
lazy)
Marek
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Message 30 Thu Mar 10, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 03:10 EST
In Message 167 on Wed Mar 09, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] said:
-| Well, I am back in Sandy. I didn't feel right standing on the
-| sidelines during the first Bull move in a long time.
Me too, Sandy!! Took one look at the move to 6 5/8 at 10am EST, then saw the
VOLUME of 100,000+ first thing in morning and did a very rare (for me) market
order to snag em right away... by the time I got to work and set up the
laptop, ATC was at 7 1/2 -- AND most of the other tech curves look like a
rocket poised to go off. Dont see such combination of positive conditions very
often on my chart set; hope it doesnt backfire.
========
In Message 165 on Wed Mar 09, 1994
J.HICKEY6 said:
-| Good news - I walked into Blockbuster in San Carlos, CA and was
-| immediately struck by a Jaguar display.
Sounds like a get-rich lawsuit to me! :)
------------
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Message 31 Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:38 EST
After looking at the chart again, I think I am seeing the possible start of a
fractal repetition, similar to what happened last fall. A long uptrend line
and that recent downtrend line I have been talking about have just come nearly
to a vertex, putting the same type of "nail biting time" squeeze on the price
as we saw back then. Remember those days? The breakout was inevitable, for
the same reasons.
If it follows through, the pattern should sort of follow what happened on the
way up to 12 3/4. This time it should go higher, and take longer.
OTOH, I could merely be falling asleep here.
--Sandy
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Message 32 Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:39 EST
Jim - -
>> I move that all this diatribe about tech analysis is good or bad be tabled,
or taken to the Investment RT where it wastes hours of download time day after
day, and neither side EVER gets convinced they're wrong.<<
Take it easy. One possible reason why we can discuss such things in a
civilized way is that 98% are fundmantalists here, with only a few extolling
the virtues of T/A. Over there, they are split more evenly, and in larger
numbers, so the arguments get hotter and derive support from numerous
quarters. They can't enjoy it as much as we do here.
Here, the main subject of analysis is a company for which real fundamental
analysis is virtually impossible. That emphasizes the value of T/A, which
doesn't rely on financial history, balance sheets, income reports, news,
and/or other fundamental information to demonstrate its utility. And I think
most people here will admit that it has shown a degree of success and lots of
laughs.
Frankly, I have a sense that a few fundamentalists here have begun to see some
benefit to T/A. The lead debater on the fundamentalist side even admitted
that he had to learn this T/A stuff, and went off to buy a fancy Gateway PC,
T/A software, and all the T/A books he can find, all motivated by his sudden
need to learn T/A. Of course, he pocketed over $100,000 from ATC last year,
so he can well afford it. His 'moment of truth' came when his expectation,
based on "fundamentals", that ATC would get up to 15 - 16 in the short term
failed. He held on too long, well beyond the sell signal from T/A, and gave
back too much to accept with tranquility. He had 12,000 shares, and had
ultimate goals of 30 about now and 60 later this year.
So, let the debate continue, in the style we have been following. And let the
"pro's" on page 290 debate it over there according to their style.
--Sandy
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Message 33 Thu Mar 10, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:34 EST
K.DRAKE - I believe "WMS" stands for "Williams/Midway/Sente" (Williams/Midway
bought Bally/Sente, but then sold off the Bally name with the Bally health
clubs).
------------
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Message 34 Thu Mar 10, 1994
A.FASOLDT [Al Fasoldt] at 08:36 EST
Bob B.,
Steam is used to help in the extraction of caffeine, also. No chemicals are
used any longer, for tea of coffee.
Al
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Message 35 Thu Mar 10, 1994
B.STOREY [Billy B.] at 08:49 EST
Here comes that 3-month cycle "surge"! <G>
The forcast from here is a steady decline starting at the end of this
"bubble", somewhat mirroring the rise to 11/93.
3:54:44 am - Thursday, March 10, 1994
Billy B.
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Message 36 Thu Mar 10, 1994
J.HICKEY6 at 09:47 EST
Sandy, with >>all three cycles going down ...it sounds like a Biorhythym
chart. :-)(that's supposed to be a grin).
How far back do you go to establish(or validate) these cycles?
Jack
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Message 37 Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 13:00 EST
Jack - -
You ask: "How far back do you go to establish(or validate) these cycles?"
I prefer to see 3 full cycle recurrences before I trade on it. However,
sometimes that shrinks to 2, either because I let myself get excited, or
because the cycle is so long that it is impractical to see it 3 times back.
Thus, the 13 and 40 day cycles are clearly visible for 3 or more repetitions.
I can now see three 20 day cycles, although this was not too clear a few weeks
back. The 120+ day cycle is quite evident, but it only shows 2 repetitions --
seems to have bottomed out sometime over the past few weeks -- because ATC
only started trading in any practical sense last May/June, so that a 3rd
sighting is not possible.
It was my reluctance to accept the 120+ cycle as verified which delayed my
diving into cycle analysis techniques until recently. I mentioned the
technique a ew months ago, but could not pin down a cycle longer than 40 days
for ATC. Now I am willing to accept the 120+ day as being there, although
somewhat hazy during the present period.
I think Billy B. has mentioned his sighting of a cycle of about 3 months,
based on 2 peaks of July 16 (5 1/2) and November 4 (12 3/4). However, 2 points
only define one completed cycle. So, while his idea may turn out valid, it is
stretching things a bit thin imho. There is no visible peak one period
earlier (mid April), and we have already passed well beyond 3 months since
Nov. 4, without an equivalent peak. But these things are not all that
definite, so he should keep trying.
--Sandy
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Message 38 Thu Mar 10, 1994
AEO.MAG [!] FSU #1 [!] at 16:37 EST
Guys,
I was kidding about the toxic chemicals stuff. It was a set-up for the
Letterman bit.
--Travis
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Message 39 Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 17:19 EST
Iver - -
I will get you the daily data as far back as June, 1992. Beyond that, I can
only get monthly data, which is probably of no use to you. Perhaps someone
else can get the dailies going back further.
--Sandy
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Message 40 Thu Mar 10, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] at 17:44 EST
Sandy,
I have the dailies for ATC back to 1989. Is that what you are talking about?
- TOM -
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Message 41 Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 18:45 EST
TOM, Yes, Iver is doing some research on ATC price movements surrounding
certain news events. He can specify the dates he needs. I can only supply
them back to June, '92, so maybe you can help him better.
--Sandy
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Message 42 Thu Mar 10, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 21:01 EST
Jim,
Quick! Sell some ATC! I'd love to see a runaway breakout! <G>
Matt
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Message 43 Thu Mar 10, 1994
K.OLSON10 [KenO.] at 22:55 EST
Hi!
I just read Walter S. Mossberg "Personal Technology" in the Wall Street. I
sure wish someone would show him a Jag.
He takes the pants off of 3DO but says nothing about the Jag. In fact in all
of his regular Thursday reports I never noticed him once mention ATARI.
Perhaps someone should clew him in - or don't any ATARI fans read the WS
Personal Technology every Thursday?
A mention once in a while from Mossberg would give our stock a boost.
KenO. :)
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Message 44 Thu Mar 10, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 23:36 EST
TOWNS,
> Well, another smash sports game was just released for the Genesis
> and the Super NES: NBA Jam from Acclaim. Notice I didn't include
> Jaguar. <sigh>
IGUANA, the creators of NBA Jams, has been advertising off & on in the Dallas
paper to hire Jaguar programmers for about a month. They are in Austin, TX.,
birthplace of the PowerPC chip.
------------
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Message 45 Fri Mar 11, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:15 EST
Sandy!
Amazing post! (msg. 178)
Neepery... I love it!
Oh, I like your new 'tag' line, too. "If you have some doubt... stay out!" ;-
)
Gee, this is really starting to become _fun_ again, isn't it?! Might have to
increase my position again!
Keep it up Sandy, your logic and deductions (ie: Tea Leaves) may be your
own... but they are Sage non-the-less, and more than welcome!
Matt
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Message 46 Fri Mar 11, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 08:12 EST
Ahhh... finally some volatility. :) Makes life more spicy.
I sold off some (at about 425% profit) last week to buy some shares in another
company that my fourier analysis told me to 'get some'. :)
Oh well... I'm not to aggravated that I didn't wait for ATC to hit 7.5. :) (to
should be too)
I may use the other stock to buy back the ATC soon. :) Gotta run some more on
the ATC tho'.
Hmm... doesn't CI$ do daily quotes back for over 1 year? I think I got a lot
of daily quotes back to 89 or so from there.
--Kevin
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Message 47 Fri Mar 11, 1994
NEVIN-S at 09:29 EST
How is SuperCharts, Tom? That's the Windows program, right? Do you like it?
How is its speed on the machine you're using?
--Nevin
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Message 48 Fri Mar 11, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] at 09:37 EST
Nevin,
It is incredible software. I am using it on a 486-DX2-66. It is reasonably
fast considering windows is running. The slow part right now is printing in
color with my BJC-600. That puts windows to sleep for a while VM seems to
kick in. I have heard that there are better print spoolers available that
would fix this problem.
SuperCharts has much more power than I will ever be able to use and
understand. I am still a novice at TA but learning.
Currently I am actively playing with 4 different stocks which SC shows in a
master page for me. I am still entering dailies by hand but will figure a
solution for that soon.
I would recommend this for anyone with Windows.
- TOM -
PS Price was around $200 and they only sell directly from the developer.
------------
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Message 49 Fri Mar 11, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 11:51 EST
Dr. Heavenervrr,
Thanks, I was wondering why the Bally name had all of a sudden been
connnected with health clubs. I figured maybe videogames had been ruled
healthy and I missed it!!
As long as the T/A talk stays informative and not flaming, I believe it is
useful to my understanding of this stock stuff. By combining T/A,
fundamentals, and my own personal analysis, I get a better view of Atari
stock.
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
------------
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Message 50 Fri Mar 11, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 12:04 EST
Sir Fransis,
The Bally Health clubs have equipment with lots of electronic gadgetry on it
(in addition to free weights). The electronic stuff seems to be mfr by Bally
Electronics. Some of those machines look like videogames. :)
--Kevin
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Message 51 Fri Mar 11, 1994
J.NESS [Jim] at 20:46 EST
John Townsend -
Re: sports games...
According to Juli Wade, the "big 4" - baseball, football, basketball and
hockey - are all in progress. But, she didn't give specific names.
------------
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Message 52 Fri Mar 11, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 21:27 EST
The whole T/A or F/A debate merely serves to entertain most of us here, I
think. In regards to the broad market, it is rather like debating over
whether to use a 1/2 inch wrench or a 13mm spanner; depends on the nuts you
are trying to turn.
John L.
------------
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Message 53 Fri Mar 11, 1994
SAM-RAPP [<<Sam>>] at 23:47 EST
There seems to be a lot of interesting things going on in the background these
days. Just beneath the surface. We need Gene's artful research to put the
pieces of the puzzle together for us. Where has he gone anyway?
==========> Sam_030
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Message 54 Sat Mar 12, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:42 EST
John L. - -
>> ...depends on the nuts you are trying to turn. <<
Nah, John. I'll admit to being the nut around here. Those guys who think
they can figure out ATC's fundamentals must be brilliant -- they have to be
for _that_ exercise. ;-)
- = - Sam_030 - -
Gene went off to learn T/A. I suspect he'll get back here some day and show
us all up once again.
--Sandy
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Message 56 Sun Mar 13, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 15:54 EST
In Message 187 on Thu Mar 10, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said:
-| Thus, the 13 and 40 day cycles are clearly visible for 3 or more
-| repetitions. I can now see three 20 day cycles, although this was not
-| too clear a few weeks back. The 120+ day cycle is quite evident, but
-| it only shows 2 repetitions --
How do you actually detect these cycles? Is it just by eyeball, or do you have
some sort of analysis that breaks the complex shape into sub-cycles?
>From my engineering background, I've wondered if one could do a Fourier
analysis on the price waveshape and resolve it into sub-harmonics... but I
never really got past understanding WHAT Fourier transforms were, so I dont
feel competent to try it myself! Your discussion, however, sounds very much
like you are viewing the multiple Fourier components of a complex waveform.
Jim W2JC in Northern NJ
--... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.-
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Message 57 Sun Mar 13, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:21 EST
Jim - -
>> You ask: "How do you actually detect these cycles? Is it just by eyeball,
or do you have some sort of analysis that breaks the complex shape into sub-
cycles? ... Your discussion, however, sounds very much like you are viewing
the multiple Fourier components of a complex waveform." <<
Glad you asked. Yes, it is possible, within limits, to break the complex
shape into sub-cycles and view them. The new mid-month GEnieLamp shows
precisely this in a picture, and describes just how that picture was obtained.
( It should be posted by Monday/Tuesday.) For this report, I concentrate on
the '120+' day cycle -- 2 completed "sine-wave like" repetitions plus the
bottoming out process which seems to be going on now. It is overlaid on the
chart of prices, and is quite clear.
Next time, I expect to show the '40' day cycle. (I appreciate that you do not
have a PC viewer for the Atari PCx format; as soon as I get my GEM View
program, I will convert past and future pictures into GIF or BMP or any other
format you and the other interested PC users in the other RTs require.)
This is all based on the concept of Fourier series. Unfortunately, a straight
forward Fourier transform process does not yield very good results, because
the complexity is more than it is designed to handle -- for technical
mathematical reasons. However, there are other filter methods one can use,
all based on the Fourier concept, which do work fairly well.
The princpal technique I am using now is based on Moving Average combinations.
To do this, one _must_ use MAs in a mathematically correct way -- which is
something you and I have discussed in a different context.
This MA filter technique is demonstrated in the new LAMP report, but one
should -- _must_ -- read the introduction in the March 1st issue in order to
understand this new report. (In the future, I will try to pull the entire
subject together into one piece. For now, I am developing it step-by-step
over several articles.)
--Sandy
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Message 58 Mon Mar 14, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:27 EST
Sandy,
With all the work you are putting into those articles, it sounds like you have
a T/A book in the making. Thanks & keep up the good work.
Carson
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Message 59 Mon Mar 14, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 21:45 EST
Carson - -
>> sounds like you have a T/A book in the making. <<
Nah, I'm not that accomplished with this stuff. I do this because I really
enjoy it, and the feedback has been helpful. I'm learning a well as
"teaching", which was why I started it in the first place. BUT ... since I
started doing this last June, it has taken several unexpected turns. Maybe
another turn lies ahead? :-)
Or maybe my "15 minutes" is just about over. :-(
Thanks for your comment.
--Sandy
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Message 60 Tue Mar 15, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:27 EST
Has anyone heard any news about Atari's lawsuit against Sega? It seems so long
ago when that came out. It was in the news & our disscussions for a few days
then "poof", gone.
Carson
------------
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Message 61 Tue Mar 15, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 23:06 EST
In Message 60 on Tue Mar 15, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] said:
-| Has anyone heard any news about Atari's lawsuit against Sega? It seems
-| so long ago when that came out. It was in the news & our disscussions
-| for a few days then "poof", gone.
Did you see the news today, that Sega is coming out with a 32 bit game machine
much earlier than originally expected?
------------
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Message 62 Tue Mar 15, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 23:42 EST
Jim W2JC,
>Did you see the news today, that Sega is coming out with a 32 bit
>game machine much earlier than originally expected?
The story I heard broadcast on CBS Radio was that this fall Sega would be
coming out with an adapter for the Genesis that would allow it to play 32 bit
games. They also said that details were sketchy.
John L.
------------
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Message 63 Wed Mar 16, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 00:34 EST
You remember their DSP chip in the Virtua Racing cart? Well, they figured that
if they were going to do an adaptor with a chip in it, they might as well toss
a couple of those Hitachi 32 jobbies in there with it. They are calling it a
32x2 system. It should bring 3DO and Jaguar gaming inline with an even lower
price, $149.99, and it will work with Genesis _and_ SegaCD. Too bad they won't
be at CES, I'd sure like to get a look at it!
Sounds impressive? mildly. Sounds workable? Extremely. If all Nintendo can do
is come out with a cartridge that allows you to play Gameboy carts on your
SNES, they're in trouble (Although I see this as their way of preparing
software for their new 256color portable).
The above is the reason why, IMHO, PCEngine is still big in Japan. It's
basically the same system year after year with upgrades. The competition has
gone through 2 or 3 different incompatible incarnations while a few upgrades
to a used PCEngine puts you right up in the front.
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
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Message 64 Wed Mar 16, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 04:51 EST
J.COOPER6 - "much earlier than expected"??? All the reports I've heard/read
regarding Tuesday's announcement say not until this Fall.
------------
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Message 65 Thu Mar 17, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 01:23 EST
Does anyone else here observe the buoyancy of Atari stock? I don't do charts
so from the point of view of a "predictor," it looks funny. In the same way it
was struggling to get higher, now it regularly bounces around in 1/8
increments.
It is for this reason that I make the following statement...
I HEREBY DECLARE THAT UNLESS ATARI IS IMPLICATED IN THE NANCY KERRIGAN SCRAP,
ATARI SHALL HOLD LINE ABOVE 6.5!
ATC's been toying with 7 for awhile now after that press release. If they
properly space out their PR's, they could gain a point every two weeks!! :)
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
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Message 66 Thu Mar 17, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:27 EST
Well, we are getting close to test time for the current set of cycles. The
40, 20, and 13 day cycles are due to bottom out this weekend -- a 'nest of
lows'. They have kept prices under downwards pressure as expected, after the
13 and 20 topped last Wednesday. Allowing for "end effects", prices could dip
and then start up anytime now. The condition of the longer 'trend' cycle is
the puzzle, as is made clear in the mid-month G_Lamp which should be in the
library by now (still suffering "teething" pains in going through the
publication process, unfortunately).
The downtrend line which stopped the rise at 7 1/2 last Wednesday, is at 7 1/8
now. It will drop through 7 next Monday. This is the final trendline type of
overhead resistance that I see. If prices get above that line, they should be
able to rise quite nicely. If they get above 8 1/4, this would confirm that
the longer trend has turned up.
BTW, that otherwise "invisible" downtrend line is also explained in detail in
the mid-month report. It is not just something I made up last week, but
something you can calculate before its presence becomes known by its effect on
prices, such as demonstrated last Wednesday.
- = = -
If anyone from Atari reads this, you may find it interesting to look in on the
3DO topic (C14, T38) in the Investors RT (m290;1) for a great description by
one of the Sysops there of the latest 3DO promotional effort at a big mall in
Florida -- I think it was at Babbages in Ft. Lauderdale. Very impressive! It
was posted within the past few days and will be easy to find, as that topic
has been pretty dead until this week. May give our Valeski and co. some
ideas.
--Sandy
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Message 67 Thu Mar 17, 1994
J.HICKEY6 at 10:08 EST
Sandy, what does T/A say about Atari's intra-day fluctuations(price and
volume)? From my observations, and messages here, there is significant
volitility.
Jack
------------
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Message 68 Thu Mar 17, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 16:08 EST
Jack,
I wouldn't "say" much unless you used very detailed data (ie. every 5 minutes
or so).
--Kevin
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Message 69 Thu Mar 17, 1994
J.P.C. at 20:53 EST
Sandy:
Nice article in the latest issue of CURRENT NOTES.
------------
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Message 70 Thu Mar 17, 1994
B.POSTON [Barney] at 23:22 EST
On Tuesday March 15 The Dallas Morning News reported a Dorfman rumor that
Seagram Co. Ltd. was considering a proxy fight to gain control of Time Warner
Inc. Has anyone heard any more on this subject? Where is the fit between TW
and Seagrams? What are the potential implications for Atari?
Visited the local Incredible Universe last night. They had plenty of Jaguars
on hand and lots of kids hanging around but the kids were only playing Segas
and SNES. None were even looking at the Jags. They had the Jag set up where
you had to stand to play it but you could sit on the floor to play the others.
Hope this is only a temporary situation pending the national rollout and start-
up of local advertising.
Barney
------------
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Message 71 Fri Mar 18, 1994
L.CALAMAIO1 at 01:45 EST
Dear all:
I have been listening (reading) to all the discussion for some time now. I am
a stockholder, albeit a small one. I saw an article today in the Chicago
Tribune today that I thought you all might be interested in. In brief, the
article ( on page 3 of TEMPO, the entertainment-type section), there was a
1/4 page article about the Jaguar and Atari. Some choice comments from the
article: "somehow the company has survived...and even produced critical, if
not popular successes, such as the Atari ST computer and the LYNX video game
system..."
"Now the copany has launched the Jaguar, its most ambitious video game machine
in more than ten years..."
"...mind-boggling 16.7 million color combinations...screen resolution is even
better than the 3DO...the best part yet:all these fatures come at a list price
of only $249.00...
And my personal favorite:
"Dollar for dollar, it's the best buy in the video game market."
Other commments included how the few cartridges available for the machine are
"already technically dazzling, and they should get even better..."
Although there were some negative comments (the lack of a CD, the lack of
educational titles, etc..), the review was very positive.
Good to see the next top ten markets are getting on board, and with good press
as well. ---Lee /s
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Message 72 Fri Mar 18, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 02:06 EST
In Message 65 on Thu Mar 17, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] said:
-| ATC's been toying with 7 for awhile now after that press release. If
-| they properly space out their PR's, they could gain a point every two
-| weeks!! :) Still Sailing,
Dont worry, ATC will take off now -- I didnt like the indicators on my charts
Wednesday at 15:55 and sold off my 400 6 5/8s at 6 7/8... so now you can all
thank me for the money you make in the next few days!
=================
In Message 62 on Tue Mar 15, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] said:
-| They also said that details were sketchy.
" Sega Enterprises Ltd. plans to break into next-generation
video games sooner than expected, with hardware that offers a
price break over contenders such as 3DO Co. "
" .. it will ship a $149 accessory that plugs into
the cartridge slot on its Genesis video game machine, roughly
doubling that 16-bit system's performance with 32-bit processing
power and improved graphics."
".. introduce the system next fall and predicted sales of 2.5
million units world-wide in its first 12 months on the market. "
"The system will require software that has been designed to take
advantage of the new circuitry, but will still play existing
game cartridges; owners of the company's Sega CD system can also
play their disks with the accessory. "
"Some analysts agreed that the Sega strategy could cast a cloud
over 3DO's attempt to build support for its new hardware
platform."
"There still is an opportunity for 3DO to establish an installed base if they
can come up with a killer application."
No mention whatsoever of Atari!
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 73 Fri Mar 18, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:35 EST
Barney - -
I don't know much about Seagrams/Time-Warner, but then I don't know much about
most of my other investments either, so I will tell you what I know.
Seagrams is basically a family operation, the Bronfman family. (BTW, somehow
my parents once met the Bronfmans and were their guests at the Kentucky
Derby.) It is a Canadian based distiller. These companies which cater to our
vices manage to gather in the cash faster than anyone can figure out what to
do with it. So I think they gave a large bundle to one of the younger kids to
keep him out of everybody's hair, and he has been investing in a major way in
other companies, some quite major ones. I think one of the others may be
DuPont.
Seagrams claims that these investments are "passive" only, and that has
apparently been the case up till now. They started buying TWX stock on the
open market many months back, and have repeatedly said they planned to
accumulate up to 15% purely as a passive investment. They are now very close
to the 15%, and the people at Time-Warner have been getting jumpy; apparently
they are afraid that Seagrams is not being honest and intends to take over.
Seagrams has so far denied any such intent, but TWX execs have put a poison
pill on the table, and have taken other actions to save their hides.
Now come the Wall Street crowd, and they can make anything into a big deal if
they smell blood and money. In just the past few days, with the nervous
twitching at TWX so obvious, the arbitragers and other story mongers have put
Time Warner/Seagrams in play and made lots of headlines, Dorfman being just
one messenger. How much is real, and how much is hot air, is not yet clear.
There are even stories that Seagrams already has a new CEO picked out to
replace Levine, the TWX CEO.
Anyway, TWX has been in a downtrend for a couple of months now -- I got out
when I saw that downtrend starting. Even with Seagrams buying millions of
shares weekly, TWX has been dropping. With the new stories, the downtrend was
reversed just days ago. When I saw this on my chart, I jumped back aboard at
39 earlier this week, and watched, dumbfounded, as it went over 43 today,
Thursday.
So there. You now know what I know.
As for how it will effect Atari, I've been trying to figure out for a year now
just how Time-Warner relates to Atari. I've posted some messages here and
even raised the question once with Bob Brodie in an RTC. I just don't know --
not very surprising. So what effect a Seagrams take over will have, I can't
even guess.
--Sandy
J.P.C. - - Thanks. I haven't received my copy of CN yet, but I was told
something would be in there about me.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 74 Fri Mar 18, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 08:52 EST
Jim,
"Dont worry, ATC will take off now -- I didnt like the indicators on my charts
Wednesday at 15:55 and sold off my 400 6 5/8s at 6 7/8... so now you can all
thank me for the money you make in the next few days!"
Thanks!! What other stocks have dumped recently. :)
Barney,
Concerning your visit to the Incredible Universe, what game was in the Jaguar
when you were there? Maybe you should have started playing the Jaguar & got
the kids there interested in it. Of course you could be like me. I wouldn't be
the best choice to show off a video game. I live in level one of whatever I
play. :)
Carson
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 75 Fri Mar 18, 1994
TOWNS [John] at 12:33 EST
I think Atari will probably come out with a CD for the Jaguar at
some point. I know that they had always intended to do that anyway.
Does Seagrams really have enough money to buy Time-Warner? I thought
TW was worth quite a bit.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 76 Fri Mar 18, 1994
ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 14:39 EST
John, the Bronfmans are one of the three richest familys in Canada, just
behind the Richmans, and in addition to Seagrams they own 3/4 of downtown
Winnipeg and half of downtown Calgary. They've got money enough to do any darn
thing they want, in short.
Charlie/sysop
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 77 Fri Mar 18, 1994
B.POSTON [Barney] at 21:43 EST
Carson,
The Jag was running Cresent Galaxy and I did play for as long as my child
bride would wait. I even let out a few, "Wow look at these graphics" but no
one even looked up from their NBA games.
Sandy,
Thanks for the in-depth look at the Seagrams vs. TWX thingy. Good luck with
your TWX holdings.
Barney
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 78 Fri Mar 18, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 23:19 EST
Charlie/sysop,
Your descriptions of the Bronfmans financial state reminds me of what a
friends lawyer told her Grandmother after my friends Grandfather had died.
The 'old man' had been of the old school, and _never_ made his wife privy to
the state of their finances.
At the meeting, when Grandmother expressed concern, the lawyer said... "
whatever you want to do, wherever you want to go, whatever you want to buy...
it's OK."
Well, I wouldn't particularly want it to be for the same reason, but I would
sure love it if that advice pertained to me! <G>
Matt
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 79 Sat Mar 19, 1994
REALM [Joey] at 00:36 EST
Sandy, I saw Kentucky Derby, Seagrams and Dupont all in one post... had to
check and make sure I remembered to come home from work.:-) I'll see if my
uncle has heard anything about Seagrams. I doubt it though, they don't
generally ask us for financial advice.:-)
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 80 Sat Mar 19, 1994
B.STOREY [Billy B.] at 05:46 EST
Sandy: Well you see, Seagrams understands about marketing.......<G>
5:26:12 am - Friday, March 18, 1994
Billy B.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 81 Sat Mar 19, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin] at 11:33 EST
Matt,
As a fellow Atari stockholder to another...
"Whatever you want to buy, whatever you want to do... It is OK."
<grin>
--Kevin
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 82 Sat Mar 19, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 21:21 EST
Kevin -
Thanks! What a pal! <G>
Matt
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 83 Sat Mar 19, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 21:40 EST
At last! The mid-month 'Special Report' is now in the library, file # 32279.
It shows that 120+ day cycle quite clearly, and should make clearer just what
this cycle analysis stuff is about. It also explains why I was able to say
that the breakout of March 9 met resistance, a pre-existing downtrend line, at
7 1/2 and was stopped right there. You, too, can construct this trendline
_before_ 2 price points are present.
"What?", you say. Draw a line with only one defining point? Can't be done.
But, in this case it can. You start off from one extreme -- a top or a
bottom. That leaves only the option of choosing among an infinite number of
possible lines. Since you are interested only in time _after_ the initial
point, that cuts the available options in half. And since, as in this case,
you are dealing with a downtrend, that cuts the number in half again. So, you
are left with choosing only among the remaining 1/4 of the infinity of lines,
those between 90 and 180 degrees from the top point. Easy enough.
It's all there in file #32279.
Sorry about the delay. It has to do with coordinating among 3 or 4 people who
are involved in getting it into the library. Since this is still something
new on their schedules, it had to go through a shakedown trial of sorts.
Should be more prompt in the future.
--Sandy
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 84 Tue Mar 22, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 00:50 EST
*** RASH JUDGEMENT***
Buy? Yes, I think so. If you have to ask why, then don't buy.
John L.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 85 Tue Mar 22, 1994
K.OLSON10 [KenO.] at 21:08 EST
Hi!
As a stock holder I have been following the advent of the Jag
Went to Electronic Boutique tonight and asked for a Jag. We got into a
discussion about getting one and it turns out that they get them in from time
to time but always they go out as soon as they get them in. It seems that the
Canadians find out and come across and snap them up. I live in Detroit and
Windsor Canada is right across the border. The consensus at the store
(Eastland Center Mall) is that when they start getting more in it is going to
be a real hit. Almost every day they get requests and frequently gamers come
in and the conversations always turns to the Jag. The two clerks are game
fans themselves and think the Jag is great so they are pushing it.
KenO. :)
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 86 Wed Mar 23, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:05 EST
It's easy to feel desperation at this point. After all, ATC has not yet taken
off to the wild blue. On the contrary, it has malingered around under that
'2/3 Speed Line' and finally had its drop to 6 1/2 -- actually 6 3/8 on
Tuesday.
But there is still some reason for optimism yet. It would have been quite
unusual to have a triple 'nest of lows' -- ie the 13, 20, and 40 day cycles
bottoming out in the same time frame -- without some visible fall in the
price. I was looking for such a fall -- mentioned it last week -- but perhaps
a day or two earlier would have been nicer. If these cycles are to provide
some upward push, they just have to show it real soon now. Question: What
are their amplitudes? Answer: not much right now, but that could change.
Puzzle: What's with the longer, 120+ day cycle? Well, you saw the chart in
the mid-month GEnieLamp -- at least I hope you did.
Has anyone been watching that ATC chart? I hope so. Prices are now being
squeezed between that descending 'Speed Line', which carries overhead
resistance in its back pocket, and a gradually rising support line. My memory
says that the gap between these lines is now about 1/4 point: 6 1/2 - 6 3/4.
Somethings gotta give, and soon.
Of course, that "something" could be the support line. Then we will see a
real decline. But I think the odds favor an upwards breakout, not enough to
bet the ranch on, but enough to keep one's spirits up for another day.
Did anyone see the new list of short positions? ATC's shorts have dropped
once again.
Keep smilin -- for another day or two anyway.
--Sandy
PS: I've mentioned watching Syquest (SYQT) as it completes a very long basing
pattern. Well, it broke out today in a big way -- ah, so-so. I managed to
scramble aboard at 10 3/4 just as it started out of the gate. I know it went
over 11 1/2, but I'm not sure where it closed.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 87 Fri Mar 25, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:46 EST
Last night, I relied on memory when I noted the gap between the converging
trend lines was 6 3/4 -> 6 1/2. That's what memory does. Those are the
numbers which apply to early next week, which I had been looking at earlier in
the evening. The 2 lines actually cross at the end of next week.
The gap now is 6 7/8 -> 6 3/8. Todays's low point was 6 3/8, right on the
support line, with the close at 6 1/2. Volume was very low, suggesting as
little desire to sell as to buy. While stretching the timing a bit, today was
_not_ any reason to abandon ship. As bleak as things may appear, I still see
the odds favoring an imminent break upwards, but I keep my money in my pocket.
So on to tomorrow. This is pretty good patience training.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 88 Fri Mar 25, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 12:10 EST
Well, it broke and it's trading like crazy. When I last checked, over 400,000
shares had traded hands and I'm _sure_ they're not selling (with stock prices
taking that dip yesterday, Atari looks like an Oasis).
Here's a bit o' news.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nintendo and Atari Games reach settlement in long-running court
case;litigation settlement ends five-year court battle and rest REDMOND, WASH.
(MARCH 24) BUSINESS WIRE - March 24, 1994--Nintendo of America Inc. and Atari
Games Corp., a subsidiary of Time Warner Inc., Thursday announced that they
have settled all litigation between them concerning alleged patent and
copyright infringements and antitrust violations.
Most terms of the settlement are confidential, however, both parties
announced the following:
All of the claims of the parties are dismissed, including judgments of patent
infringement and copyright infringement previously awarded to Nintendo against
Atari Games; Nintendo receives certain payments in connection with the
settlement as well as certain patent licenses from Atari Games and Atari Corp.
(not affiliated with Atari Games); and Atari Games again becomes a Nintendo
licensee.
"We are pleased that this litigation has been resolved," says Nintendo
Chairman Howard Lincoln. "We are especially pleased that Time Warner, the
parent company of Atari Games, interceded and cooperated in an effort to
settle this case."
Atari Games' Senior Vice President Dennis Wood also added: "We're glad that
this protracted litigation is over and that we're on good terms with Nintendo;
we are starting immediately to develop games for them again."
The settlement between Nintendo and Atari Games is the result of litigation
initially filed by Atari Games in 1988. The case is not related to the Atari
Corp. vs. Nintendo case in which a federal jury in 1992 rejected claims that
Nintendo had unlawfully monopolized the U.S. home video game market.
Nintendo of America Inc., based in Redmond, Wash., is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Nintendo Co., Ltd., Japan, the world's largest manufacturer and
marketer of video games.
Atari Games Corp., based in Milpitas, Calif., is a privately held corporation
and is a developer and manufacturer of coin-operated video games.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 89 Fri Mar 25, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 12:22 EST
And here's what they meant by 'equity'...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ATARI CORP. ANNOUNCES FOURTH QUARTER AND 1993 RESULTS AND ADDITIONAL EQUITY
INVESTMENT BY TIME WARNER SUNNYVALE, Calif., March 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Atari
Corp. (AMEX: ATC) today reported results of operations for the fourth quarter
and year ended Dec. 31, 1993. Net sales for the fourth quarter 1993 were $8.5
million as compared to $25.5 million for the same quarter 1992. For the fourth
quarter of 1993 Atari incurred a net loss of $22.6 million as compared to a
net loss of $21.9 million in the same quarter in 1992. In the fourth quarter
of 1993 the company took charges which included the writedown of $12.1 million
in inventory and other items and $6.0 million for restructuring charges
associated with the completion of the company's consolidation of its European
operations and closure of its Australian subsidiary. For the year 1993 the
company reported sales of $28.8 million as compared to $127.3 million in 1992.
For 1993, the company incurred a loss of $48.9 million as compared to $73.6
million for 1992.
Commenting on the results, Sam Tramiel, president of Atari, said, "While we
are disappointed in the magnitude of our losses in the fourth quarter and 1993
as a whole, we believe that we have substantially completed our transition
from our older technology products and the consolidation of our worldwide
operations. In the fourth quarter of 1993, we successfully launched the Atari
Jaguar, the 64-bit interactive multimedia entertainment system. The intense
game, Tempest 2000 for the Atari Jaguar, ships this week and was recently
awarded 'Game of the Month' by Die Hard Game Fan and Electronic Gaming Monthly
magazines. In addition to the initial launch markets of New York and San
Francisco, we have now introduced Jaguar in Los Angeles, and as availability
of Jaguar hardware and software increases, we will broaden our distribution
throughout the United States. As a result of increased spending for marketing
activities and until such time as shipments of Jaguar products are made in
substantial volume, we do not expect to achieve profitability."
*****************here's the special bit****************
Time Warner Investment In addition, Atari Corp. entered into an agreement to
sell 1.5 million shares of its common stock to Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) at
a price of $8.50 per share for an aggregate investment of $12.8 million. The
transaction would increase Time Warner's interest in Atari Corp. from
approximately 25% to 27%. The agreement is subject to regulatory clearance
and other formalities of closing. Sam Tramiel said, "We welcome the
additional investment by Time Warner. These funds along with our existing
cash balances will be used to expand Jaguar throughout the Untied States."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
They bought 1.5 million shares at higher than the market price?!?! What do
_they_ know?!?!
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 90 Fri Mar 25, 1994
AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 14:25 EST
Maybe this press release has some relevance to the price of Atari Corp's
stock!
Atari Corporation And Nintendo Reach Settlement
In Patent Infringement Case
Sunnyvale, CA -- Atari Corporation (ASE:ATC) today reported that Nintendo of
America, Inc. and Atari Corporation have settled litigation concerning Atari
Corporation's '114 Patent. The '114 Patent relates to horizontal scrolling in
videogames. The '114 Patent is part of Atari Corporation's portfolio of
pioneering patents in the computer and video game field. For a cash payment,
Atari Corporation granted Nintendo a license to certain patents in Atari
Corporation's portfolio. The License does not include Atari Corporation's
patents related to LYNX or patents pending relating to the JAGUAR technology.
Sam Tramiel, President of Atari Corporation, stated "This is an important
settlement that will hopefully lead to resolution of other patent infringement
claims." The '114 Patent and two other Atari Corporation patents are the
subject of litigation between Atari Corporation and Sega which is pending in
the United States District Court, Northern District of California.
-- I was just FAXed this by Atari. Any misspellings are due to me.
--Travis
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 91 Fri Mar 25, 1994
D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 19:47 EST
Poor Nintendo.... got caught stealing technology from Atari! Heh heh heh. Next
up: Sega!
______________________
\hunderbird
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 92 Fri Mar 25, 1994
I.POSSEHL1 [Iver] at 20:08 EST
Everybody hold your breath for what is to come next week.
A year ago when the DJIA turned down ATC went up. Gene the contrarian would
then go into pages of explenation. Is it happening again?
Lets hope so!
-> Iver
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 93 Sat Mar 26, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:59 EST
Travis - -
That fax you received:"... For a cash payment, Atari Corporation granted
Nintendo a license to certain patents in Atari Corporation's portfolio" and
settling a law suit, was contradicted in a release from Nintendo later in the
day. VIZ:
DOW JONES NEWS SERVICE 18:29 Nintendo Rebuts Atari Corp. Statement On Patent
Settlement
REDMOND, Wash. -DJ- Nintendo of America Inc. rejected Atari Corp.'s (ATC)
characterization today of the companies' recent settlement, saying the
''suggestion that Nintendo paid anyone anything in connection with this
settlement is completely false.''
In a press release, Nintendo said it ''received certain payments and patent
licenses on a royalty-free basis'' from Atari to settle litigation involving
Nintendo's patent relating to horizontal scrolling in video games.
Earlier today, Atari said it granted Nintendo a license to certain of its
patents for an undisclosed cash payment in connection with the settlement.
- = - =
A battle of PR departments? So, do you still think that fax sent out by Atari
is what moved the stock today? More probably it had to do with the Time-
Warner announcement. Veerrryyyy interesting, and most timely!! What say you?
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 94 Sat Mar 26, 1994
AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 04:34 EST
Sandy,
It looks like they're both (NOA & ATC) going at it with duelling PRs.
Go to Newsbytes and search on Nintendo AND patent. Read the last item. If it's
ok with the SysOps, I'll post one quote each from the Newsbytes item, from
August Liguori of Atari and Tom Gallatin of NOA:
"The settlement talks have been long and complicated, but the bottom line is
at the end of the day Atari had money in the bank."
"In the settlement, Nintendo was given a royalty free license to all patents
in question, including '114 and Nintendo was given a cash settlement as well.
We are pursuing investigation into any claims from Atari that would state it
differently."
--Travis
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 95 Sat Mar 26, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 10:39 EST
Sandy,
>A battle of PR departments? So, do you still think that fax sent
>out by Atari is what moved the stock today? More probably it had to
>do with the Time- Warner announcement. Veerrryyyy interesting, and
>most timely!! What say you?
WHAT'S THIS! Is Sandy biting the FA bullet? (D&RL) ?B'>
Has anyone figured out my WHY yet? More later, I'm late for the Users' Group
meeting.
John L.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 96 Sat Mar 26, 1994
I.POSSEHL1 [Iver] at 17:01 EST
Sandy -> I have read your recent articles on moving averages and cycles. I
believe that the cycle theory may be somewhat useful, but has a basic flaw.
Consider an example from astronmy. the Ptolemaic theory held that the motion
of the planets could be described by adding cycle upon cycle to reach a close
approximation of observed positions. Capurnicus proposed an exlpaination based
upon a whole new presupposition: consider the Sun to be the center of the
system.
My point is that any wave form can be *approximated* be adding cycle on cycle.
Now realize that the daily fluctuation of the stock market is far more
complicated than planitary motions. Moving averages remove the daily ups and
downs to reveil an overall trend. You claim to see several different cycles at
work here. Fine, the cycles you describe may accurately describe observed
patterns. But, I am not yet convinced that they can be used to reliable
predict ATC for the next week much less the next month or year.
In short, cycles are descriptive rather than predictive.
Just for the record, I believe that fractal analysis has similar shortfalls
but like to consider it in my decision making process. If it works for you
then do it.
On a related matter: On your March 11 chart you plot a "2/3 Speed Line" and
state that the line is not arbitrary. Why is it that you make no mention of
this line until it fits? As a matter of fact on your Feb. 11 chart we see
another unrelated line (based on fractals?). Your descriptions were similar
prior to the last breakout (and maybe also the one before that, I can't
remember). Your consistantly revised the slope of the downtrend line until the
breakout occured then would announce "See, I told you". All this does seem
arbitrary to those of us less versed in your methods.
Please do not consider these comments as a personal attack. They are intended
to promote further discussion of your theorys.
-> Iver
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 97 Sat Mar 26, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 17:10 EST
John L. - -
-> "WHAT'S THIS! Is Sandy biting the FA bullet? (D&RL) ?B'>"
Glad you asked. I said "...most timely!!" Wait till you see my article in
the April 1 GEnieLamp.ST. The Time-Warner announcement came right on time, to
the minute. It had to be that way since the cycles were right in line for
Friday's breakout. TWX was just playing the role assigned it by the chart. :-
))
I had to submit the text already, but the discussion and the chart will show
this as clear as day. If anyone doubts the power of the chart after this,
they need a psychological test. ;-)
As for the substance of Time-Warner's announcement, I think you and others are
well aware of my long standing puzzlement about their role in Atari's affairs.
I have long thought it would be a "natural" for TWX to exert some greater
influence in the top management at ATC.
I had pretty much given up, and I am still not sure just what's going on
there. It's a minor amount of money, just about enough to keep Atari in
business for another quarter. Recalling that Tramiel has a $240 million debt
to TWX due in May, it may even be just TWX's way to preserve some value in
this asset as they get ready to apply the squeeze.
= - = -
Travis - - Where do I see "Newsbytes"?
There was a nice article in the NY Times this morning about the "soaring" of
Atari's shares on the Time Warner announcement. According to one analyst:
``The Time Warner investment is a strong vote of confidence in Atari, even
though it's not a large dollar amount,'' said Charles Lemonides, an analyst
for Gruntal & Co. in New York. Noting that Warner spun off Atari in early
1984 to get Atari's losses off its own financial statements, he added: ``To
see them come back and make an equity infusion does suggest that they've
looked closely at Atari and see an upside.''
I'm from Missouri, and I don't believe this Lemonides fellow is doing anything
more than talking through his hat. The typical hot air which Wall Street
analysts can generate at the drop of a pin.
What I'm looking for is the trigger which will say "panic time" to the
remaining 4 1/2 million short shares. I'm sitting here waiting to collect.
Is this it? A few days may tell the story.
--Sandy
PS: Commodore seems to be ready to bite the dust. Does this offer an
opportunity to Atari?
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 98 Sat Mar 26, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 17:11 EST
We are now in a period during which families get together and enjoy
celebrating one holiday or another. Easter for most, Passover for many. I
wish all a pleasant holiday.
In particular, I wish a happy Passover to the Tramiel family who, I am sure,
understand the meaning of "Exodus" more than most of us. In spite of what I
may say from time to time, I wish them great success.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 99 Sat Mar 26, 1994
M.LYDA [mike] at 17:46 EST
There was no mention of any of the press releases from Atari in todays
Philadelphia Inquirer, but there was a nice full article on Commodore
releasing their earnings report. It looks like we can eliminate the CD32 from
any further discussions here on competitive game systems as it looks like
there will not be a large push for it in the U.S. with such losses from C=.
Did anyone notice that 3DO stock jumped $2 Fri???
So from the (dueling PRs) we can speculate either:
1) one side didn't understand the settlement (ha!)
2) one side is using the media to it's fullest extent by
creating news
3) the settlement was forced on one party (notice the mention of
Time Warner in the first press release)
4) Atari is trying to scare Sega into a cash settlement
5) Nintendo _never_ admits it was wrong or has failed
6) a takeover was blocked by Time Warner.................. (those were
all pure speculation)
Iver;
I'm with you.. sort of.. T/A can only predict what other people using
similar T/A will do. Friday was an F/A day as the majority of buyers and
sellers were probably pushed by the press releases rather than their charts.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 100 Sat Mar 26, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 18:13 EST
-> Iver - -
A personal attack? From you? Nah, don't worry about it. Your criticisms are
no more than I would expect, and I appreciate them.
As for cycle theory. Yes, a Fourier Series can usually be tuned to most "wave
forms" as you say. That is precisely the point. If any phenomenon can be
described in terms of a set of cycles, than there is reasonable expectation
that the cycles will persist for at least some time into the future. The
problem is untangling the messy "wave form" into its component sine waves. I
don't claim my particular set of cycles is the ideal for Atari, but it does
seem to work -- as the new GEnieLamp article will make crystal clear -- right
to the day.
As to some justification for the relevance of cycles, imho they are measuring
the natural ebb and flow of human emotions. I would even recall that we all
came from the sea which makes us sensitive to natural cycles which the sea
exhibits. I believe it can be demonstrated that there are elements of human
physiology and psychology which still exhibit aspects of wave motions which
linger from our ancestral history as water creatures. It may well be that
certain solar system related cycles are also present in our make up for
similar reasons. You don't have to agree with my attempt at justification;
but if it works -- and I am still learning -- than don't complain.
Now, if you can come up with some X-centric model, a la Copernicus, to replace
my cycles, I will be the first to praise you and jump aboard the new theory --
if it works!
As for the "2/3 Speed Line", yes, this time I was tardy in putting it forward.
I don't plot it in advance all that often, but when I am puzzled as to why a
particular move may have hit a barrier, I try this as well as other
possibilities. In this case, the Speed Line lined up perfectly, and so I
reported it. However, the computation is based on facts which occur in the
chart _before_, not after, the fact. And the formula is a given, it doesn't
fluctuate to fit the latest data. In the future, I will try to remember to
plot it in advance for your benefit. Trouble is, Stalk The Market does not
have a way to draw a trend line without having 2 price points on the chart
That is one reason I don't use it that often -- perhaps a PC will fix that
practical shortcoming. Or maybe I can use some picture editor which I don't
have.
As to revising trend lines. Trend lines are drawn through price high and low
extremes. Sometimes one figures something is a local extreme, only to see
sometime later that it was not. I don't believe I have ever changed something
"sneakily". I try to explain and make clear what I am doing. I dislike just
making a statement to the effect that "the price will rise" or "the price will
be lower sometime within the next 6 months". I think you will agree that I am
usually pretty long winded in explaining. And every explanation, once posted,
is a potential target for criticism if something doesn't quite work out the
way it was projected.
I can only do what I can do, and these things can turn on a dime. As ATC did
last November 4, but which I saw and made every effort to warn people in this
topic about at the time. Maybe you remember that "ominous new kind of tea
leaf which showed up in my tea pot" that day.
--Sandy
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Message 101 Sat Mar 26, 1994
SL-DEV [Michael] at 19:08 EST
Sandy, Mike Lyda: Yes, Commodore also had a miserable quarter. (And year.)
Just like Atari. The main difference is that Commodore's sales were down from
$237.7 million a year earlier to $70.1 million, while Atari's sales were down
from $25.5 million to $8.5 million. Both are doing absolutely miserable,
Commodore's just about two years behind Atari in its fall.
You'll find an interesting topic in the Amiga roundtable similar to this
topic. The reasons for Commodore's decline are different than Atari's---but
they probably both have the same marketing team. ;-)
It is sad, both companies are mere shadows of their former selves. If I was
superstitious, I'd surmise that it was our support for them that made them
decline. Hmm, if we supported Windows, would Bill G. have to sell his home? ;-
)
Michael
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Message 102 Sat Mar 26, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 23:40 EST
Sandy -
I second your sentiments towards the Tramiels, and wish you and yours a most
pleasant holiday as well!
For the rest of you out there... hey, time to start thinking about where
you'll hide those Easter Eggs!
Pssst! They tell me the pockets of the pool table are _NOT_ a good idea! ;^)
Matt
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Message 103 Sun Mar 27, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:34 EST
Michael (SL-DEV) - -
I haven't been following Commodore, so I don't know why their sales have
shrunk.
However, in Atari's case, I think there was some plan behind their shrinkage.
I can't prove it, but I think Atari arrived at a strategic decision a couple
of years ago to clear the decks for the Jaguar and make an entirely new start.
They realized that the way things were going with their present computer line,
they might never turn it around. So they took advantage of a new
technological breakthrough, which might give them a year or two lead on
everybody, to remake the company. If so, it shows a capacity for long term
strategic thinking which speaks well for them. Was it Jack? Was it Sam? Or
was it Time-Warner who is behind it more than yet shows?
I think they have run into unexpected problems, along with IBM, which are
slowing the Jaguar, but they still have a chance to make it work. That Time-
Warner has shown at least some interest in keeping them going may be a
premature exposure of their designs. Or it may be as cynical as I suggested
in an earlier message: namely Time-Warner has its claws ready to snatch up the
whole business, with a technology which may fit like a glove with their own
plans, and they have acted to make sure there is a business still left to grab
when the time is ripe.
That price of $8.50/share, which seems such a puzzle with the market price at
$6.50. Why?
I don't know the precise numbers, but I estimate that, before this deal, Time
Warner needed approximately 29 million newly issued shares to bring their
position to just over 50% of Atari. At $8.50, that comes to about $246
million. Just what I hear that Time Warner is owed by Tramiel, due in May.
Come May, they could have swapped that debt for new shares in Atari, and thus
own Atari. So circumstances made it necessary to inject some immediate money
into Atari to keep them alive for another quarter. The price of $8.50 was
already settled, so why not?
Fundamental analysis! See where it can lead? If I were a Wall Street
analyst, such tripe would be taken seriously and find its way into the WSJ.
Shorts would rush out the door and ATC would jump up to 15 in a few days.
--Sandy
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Message 104 Sun Mar 27, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:02 EST
-> Iver - -
I have re-read your criticism and see that you are upst about my using one
downtrend line on Feb 11 which seemed to justify a fractal interpretation and,
a month later, I drew another downtrend line which I labelled a "2/3 Speed
Line" and described in detail just how it was constructed. You seem upset
that I could change trend lines from one month to another.
Sorry, but you are manufacturing something to criticize, without being
reasonable.
I already explained why some line might be changed because new data require
it. But, in this case, I also used them for 2 different purposes, a month
apart, and explained each one at the time. There was a breakout which I
ascribed to the Fractal model. You didn't criticize it at the time. Then,
when the breakout was halted at 7 1/2, I looked for a reason, and offered a
perfectly legitimate construction to explain it, the 'Speed' line, which
became the new trend line. I have stuck with that 'Speed' line right through
till Friday's breakout, as you will see from a chart in the April 1 column.
I have also re-tuned the cycle model for the April 1 olumn. It is so
beautiful, I can't stop admiring it myself. What I had seen as a '20' day
cycle is shown to be really 21 days. With this minor adjustment, it is shown
to repeat 3 times through March 4/5, with the 4th consecutive complete cycle
projected to end and turn up for the 5th consecutive repeat on March 25/26.
Thus, after 4 complete cycles, it comes right to the day, and fully explains
why the upturn I was expecting early in the week actually came on Friday
morning.
You might have me stick with one parameter forever, but that's not how things
work. Things do change, and I would be stupid to insist that my old
measurement has to be cast in stone. So, 20 days is changed to 21 days. Will
you allow me that?
--Sandy
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Message 105 Sun Mar 27, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 08:09 EST
S.WOLF4 - Newsbytes is a computer/telecommunications/electronics-related news
service available on GEnie, CIS, and other services, I believe. On GEnie,
it's on page 316. They have at least 30 stories every weekday/business day.
------------
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Message 106 Sun Mar 27, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 10:37 EST
In Message 97 on Sat Mar 26, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said:
-| I had pretty much given up, and I am still not sure just what's going on
-| there. It's a minor amount of money, just about enough to keep Atari in
-| business for another quarter.
This reminds me a lot of the company I worked for until just before Christmas
last year. They were getting similar _monthly_ infusions from one of the BIG
aerospace/electronics companies -- presumably in return for rights to whatever
developed from some ongoing projects. Week before Xmas, the allowance stopped!
And plop, no more little company.
I hope the ATC situation isn't quite that close to the edge!
------------
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Message 107 Sun Mar 27, 1994
SL-DEV [Michael] at 14:33 EST
Sandy: nah, I don't think they're that bright. I believe they really hoped the
MegaST would sell big, like the ST did. Nothing happened. So they kept working
and then tried the STe. Didn't sell, try again. Then they convinced themselves
that a TT workstation would sell. Didn't happen, so they came up with the
Falcon, which this time would restore sales to ST levels. Nope, didn't happen,
let's try a Jaguar. No different than the XEGS, Stacy, etc. Start designing
something, announce it, see if people like the idea, then perhaps build it,
see if anyone buys it. The strategy worked well on the ST, and they sold a
couple of million, but they haven't had a hit since then. Who knows, maybe the
Jaguar will be their next hit, but they've been up to bat quite a few times.
The main difference this time is their PR is quite a bit better.
The reasons Commodore is declining are due to sheer stupidity. They've sold
twice as many Amiga's as Atari sold STs, and the majority of these were in the
last couple of years as sales finally picked up, but then they made a bunch of
stupid mistakes and sales collapsed. The biggest difference between Atari and
Commodore from the software developers' standpoint is that Atari sales have
been dropping slowly for years, and Amiga sales crashed in April of 1993 and
haven't recovered since.
You really should check out the equivalent topics in the Commodore section if
you need to get cheered up about Atari. I recommended the same to them over
there to read this topic since some people are getting really down. Just look
for topics named "Commodore Dead?" ;-)
Cheers,
Michael
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Message 108 Sun Mar 27, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 19:54 EST
The following is excerpted from Herb Greenberg's Business Insider column from
the San Francisco Chronicle for 3/25/94:
" Why Did So Many Get Blindsided By Media Vision? If the fiasco at Media
Vision proves anything, it proves that many Wall Street analysts -- especially
those whose firms represent the company as investment bankers - do little
independent research outside what they're spoon fed by the company."
I would just like to note that T/A is far less susceptible to such shenanigans
and wishful thinking. Not completely, perhaps, because we're all human. But
it's much less subjective all the way round.
These professional "Fundamentalists" led a slew of investors to the proverbial
slaughter. The stock only fell from the mid 40s to 10 in a few months, from
26 to 10 in one day last week. No T/Aer could have done it.
--Sandy
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Message 109 Sun Mar 27, 1994
AFINKEL [andy] at 22:24 EST
John L: perhaps you've discovered the truth about the mysterious linkage
between TA and FA ... basically, TA is used by a certain Bavarian corporation
to communicate with all of its employees. When the cycle says a stock should
go up, they perform the appropriate action. Its a simple cause/effect
relationship. If it weren't for the actions taken, on schedule, the market
wouldn't be as predictable for them. TA is the art of reading those
communications cycles, and investing appropriately. Of course, if a person
gets _too_ good at it....
(I hope no one took this seriously :-) )
andy
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Message 110 Sun Mar 27, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 22:36 EST
Michael (SL-DEV),
John Dvorak was on a call-in talk show on KRLD (1080 AM) last Friday and
opined that Microsoft had pretty much run out of steam as a purveyor of
operating systems. He said that there really was not much they could do with
DOS or Windows that the consuming public would percieve as a real improvement,
and that "Chicago" was more wind than sail. I'll be interested to see if he
is anywhere near the mark.
John L.
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Message 111 Sun Mar 27, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 23:51 EST
>.... basically, TA is used by a certain Bavarian corporation
>to communicate with all of its employees.
You're 5 days early, andy. Besides, I thought that was TM, not TA.
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Message 112 Mon Mar 28, 1994
MIKE-ALLEN [NM~SysOp] at 00:23 EST
Michael,
>I believe they really hoped the MegaST would sell big, like the ST
>did. Nothing happened. So they kept working and then tried the STe.
>Didn't sell, try again. Then they convinced themselves that a TT
>workstation would sell. Didn't happen, so they came up with the
>Falcon, which this time would restore sales to ST levels. Nope,
>didn't happen, let's try a Jaguar.
Seems to me that with the MegaSTe, TT and Falcon030 there are two common
threads that doomed the products; unrealistic pricing and lack of
advertising. By the time Atari dropped the price on the MSTe, for instance,
it was too late. The F030 was badly hampered by the "no mail order" edict.
That has been corrected, but again too late.
I know that certain dealers believe that they could sell all the MSTes and TTs
they could get their hands on at current pricing. Atari has shown a great
propensity for "hiding their light under a bushel basket." Too bad for us
users not to mention 3rd party developers, such as yourself, and what few
dealers that remain.
Then Atari went and "right-sized" prior to the release of the Jaguar. Seems to
me that they "under-sized." I'm beginning to believe that they don't have the
staff to support the Jaguar, let alone the computer line.
Atari seems to never have realized the importance of customer support.
Yourselves, Gribnif, CodeHead, HiSoft (to name just a few) know what customer
support is about. So do our few remaining good dealerships such as Toad,
Computer STudio, TCN, etc.
Can the old dog (Atari management) learn new tricks? If they are going to
survive, they will have to. They should have learned by now that just having
superior hardware won't insure success. They have to market and support also.
I really feel sorry for Bob Brodie. He tries to do, by himself, what he
should have a staff to handle. Too often he is the bearer of bad tidings. I
just hope that he doesn't have to come on line and say "Today Atari announced
the termination of its computer line."
Mike Allen
ST HelpDesk~Sysop
Written: 6:43 PM Mountain Time
Sunday, March 27, 1994
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Message 113 Mon Mar 28, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:31 EST
Sandy -
As far as _I'm_ concerned... you can bring it out to 22 days! Heck, go for 23
if the cycles demand!
Your posts and observations continue to inform, educate and entertain... and I
thank you for them.
Hope your staying dry in all this rain,
Matt
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Message 114 Mon Mar 28, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 08:04 EST
J.BATTEY1 - Okay, perhaps Mr. Dvorak CAN say something remotely intelligent on
occasion! <grin> From him writing in PC magazines why IBM clones are so much
better than other platforms and then in Mac magazines why Macs are so much
better than other platforms, I'm surprised anyone with half a brain even
listens to the man -- other than for a good laugh! <grin>
Here's an interesting Time-Warner/Atari rumor... Atari and Time-Warner are to
start up a jointly owned software publishing company within the next few
months!
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Message 115 Mon Mar 28, 1994
J.HICKEY6 at 10:53 EST
I have a dumb question - are the moving averages based on calendar days or
trading days? From the discussions here, I suspect it's the former(unless the
emotional cycles referred to are of people who don't get emotional unless the
market is open;-)
Jack
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Message 116 Mon Mar 28, 1994
CODEHEAD [Charles] at 11:21 EST
Mike,
>> I just hope that he doesn't have to come on line and say "Today
>> Atari announced the termination of its computer line."
I think we all know it's just a matter of time before this happens.
Sam Tramiel has already admitted, in public statements, that Atari has
"backed out" of computer production.
- Charles
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Message 117 Mon Mar 28, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] at 12:23 EST
Charles,
That is not the kind of thing that you announce except maybe at a
stockholder's meeting.
- TOM -
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Message 118 Mon Mar 28, 1994
AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 13:06 EST
Steve,
That Atari/Time-Warner software house thingy was a planned April Fool's Joke
that a few magazine editors took the wrong way - they fell for it! (Ok, it -
was- a well crafted joke! :)
Alas, it's not true.
I was going to run it in AEO this weekend, and after saying that I wouldn't do
so, I may reconsider, just for laffs.
--Travis
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Message 119 Mon Mar 28, 1994
SL-DEV [Michael] at 14:29 EST
J.L.: maybe so, but that won't stop Microsoft from selling tons of Windows 4.0
(Chicago). It will be bundled with almost every PC made. Users will upgrade
(they bought all those DOS 6.2 upgrades!). Developers will eventually make 4.0
the minimum system requirement. Chicago has lots of new stuff in it and will
be a vast improvement over 3.1. Don't discount it. Apple should be panicking
because their gui lead is disappearing and they haven't updated their
interface in eons.
>I just hope that he doesn't have to come on line and say "Today Atari
>announced the termination of its computer line."
Nah, they'd never make Bob do that! They'd lay him off, then just put out a
press release. ;-)
Michael @ Soft-Logik Publishing Corp.
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Message 120 Mon Mar 28, 1994
ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 14:34 EST
I'm not going to worry about Atari dropping the computer side untill I hear of
massive layoff's (IE: everyone left) and the sale of Atari's HQ in Sunnyvale.
Let's face it, a one product company is a one man company, and if the Jaguar
is going to be Atari's only product as some say they have no need for large
offices; they could run the show from a few rooms above a stip mall in Encino.
Mind you, even that would mean little for this topic. The stock would keep on
behaving weird.
Charlie/sysop
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Message 121 Mon Mar 28, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 18:07 EST
Jack - -
-> "a dumb question - are the moving averages based on calendar days or
trading days?" <-
That is NOT a "dumb question". Most chartists eliminate weekend days from the
horizontal axis, and otherwise pay attention only to business days. Some
cycle analyzers do so also.
I have tried both, and have settled on calendar days. If you look at the
charts I've been putting up, there are appropriate gaps where non-market days
occur. Fortunately, Stalk The Market also follows this convention. This also
accommodates my concept that short/intermediate term market fluctuations are
driven by swings in crowd emotions. As you say, people's emotions do not get
turned off over a weekend.
In fact, Monday morning trading has long been recognized as based a lot on
emotional reactions which seem to capture the minds -- and fears -- of traders
over weekends. There are at least 2 'rule-of-thumb' adages related to this:
1) "Monday's trading is counter trend";
2) "Turn-around Tuesday and continuation Wednesday" (ie Tuesday
often reverses Monday's direction, and Wednesday -- and
Thursday -- usually continue Tuesday's direction.
As most such sayings, these should not be regarded as "truths", just as
interesting observations to keep in mind. Surprising how often it works out
that way.
--Sandy
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Message 122 Mon Mar 28, 1994
D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 22:54 EST
Looks like C= is heading for chapter 11.
There was some news on the reuters wire about C= posting anoither loss, and
they were trying to negotiate with suppliers and creditors who were taking
legal steps against them.
Oh, yeah... the CD32 wasn't selling well, either.
_____________________
\hunderbird
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 123 Tue Mar 29, 1994
SL-DEV [Michael] at 00:05 EST
D.E.: most people discounted that stuff in their quarterly report as the
standard stuff that they must report in order to avoid lawsuits from
stockholders if they ever did file. Then they can say they warned 'em. I
believe this has happened before.
However, and perhaps Sandy with his omniscient powers in the stock market, can
explain why commodore (CBU) wasn't traded on Monday. The quarterlies were
quickly forgotten once people realize that the stock wasn't traded on Monday,
and nobody seems to know why. Any idea what is up?
(Perhaps the accountants thought a couple days warning was enough? ;-)
After the last few years, nothing Atari or Commodore does can surprise me. Why
are my two favorite computers in the hands of such, such... twits, for want of
a better word?
Michael
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Message 124 Tue Mar 29, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 00:18 EST
SL-DEV,
For Microsoft to say they have sold X-number of copies of Windows based on
copies bundled with PC is like a tomatoe farmer bragging about how many
tomatoe seeds he has sold. If the numbers they gave were of how many copies
are in day-to-day use, it might be meaningful. I don't discount Windows 4, Mr.
Dvorak does. The fact that most of the copies "sold" will, in fact, be given
away also discounts it considerably.
Back to the Topic at hand:
CAVEAT: As always, I personnally have nothing "in play" but my ego. No
investment is without risk. Over time, the risk of loosing money in the
market is as great as that for profit. No one should place at risk more than
they can comfortably afford to loose.
Last week I said I thought it was time to buy, but that if you did not know
why I thought so, then you should not buy.
Here is my "WHY".
First and foremost, as Sandy has said, the charts were indicating an impending
break, either up or down. The problem was to predict, with some confidence,
the most probable direction of the break & the potential momentum of the move
after the break.
1) A repetition of the previously observed fractal pattern would
indicate that the break would be upward.
2) In the March 4 1994 RTC, Bob Brodie indicated that the "equity"
that would be brought into play would probably be something other
than a new stock issue.
3) He also said that "Tempest 2000" would be going on the store
shelves on the 28th (tomorrow) and that a widening of the Jaguar
marketing & advertising effort would follow closely.
4) The National Association of Broadcasters which took place last
week convention was scheduled to announce adoption or preliminary
adoption of a standard for the data compression technique to be
used for "Movies on demand" and/or 2 hour video CD's. The only
method under consideration that was developed fully enough for
adoption was MPEG2. Atari showed an MPEG2 cartridge at the New
York roll-out last November. The only competition for this
market is from Phillips' CD-I and the Pioneer Laser Active, both
of which are more complex to produce and/or modifiy. Matsushita
has said that a redesign (aka: a new model) of the REAL 3DO would
be required.
MY GUESS: If the pattern I have observed repeats, a peak just above 20 in mid
May would be indicated.
I believe that Atari will have cemented its market position with the Jaguar by
early to mid June. The volitility of the stock should, by then, be
extinguished, and its value solidified for a longer term. Such a situation
would mean an end to repetitions of the fractal pattern, as volitility has
been its driving force.
John L.
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Message 125 Tue Mar 29, 1994
I.POSSEHL1 [Iver] at 00:43 EST
Sandy -> I really did not intend to be picky, and I am not upset. I read your
columns, and postings as one approch to deciphering what ATC has done and
where it is going. I believe this is your stated intention. My responce was
just the written expresion of rumbelings I had in the back of my head.
I do not want to appear unreasonable. You are right when you say the cycles
need re-tuning. That is part of the process, and is to be expected. I have no
problem with such tweeking. I also agree that you are reasonable in adopting
new trendlines when the situation demands its. But I still say that they SEEM
arbitrary. BTW I did mention in e-mail why I thought one of your support lines
was based on an artificial blip in the ATC market. I probibly did not say
anything about the other trend lines because they revealed what I wanted to
see. (Those fickle emotions again.)
I still like your basic analysis. I just thought it would be worth discussing
some potential weaknesses.
We all (you also, Sandy) need to take it with a grain of salt. I believe
someone here said the charts can only be a guide. The best decission may still
be contrary to what the chart says. The chart is a tool, not a rule. Right?
->Iver
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Message 126 Tue Mar 29, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 01:51 EST
Michael,
I think 'twits' sums it up nicely! ;-)
=====
J.L. -
Thanks for the follow up to your 'buy' suggestion. An informative read!
Matt
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Message 127 Tue Mar 29, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:52 EST
Michael - -
"Omniscient powers"? Thanks.
My neighbor told me more than a week ago that "Amiga" was going bankrupt. He
has 2 PC's, a Mac, and an old Apple II, and seems to know what goes on. The
news wires only reported it last Friday. As I understand it, CBU was
squirming to get enough new cash to keep going for a few months. A couple of
friendly sources put in a few millions, but took lots of hardware for it.
Seems about all they can do is file, and maybe that's why trading was halted.
The NYSE has some pretty strict rules on things like liquidity, marketability,
etc. to allow trading in a NYSE issue. I guess CBU fell below the minimum
standards. The news wires tonight say nothing more than what I related above.
Seems to me that CBU would have some good value if it can go through a Chapter
11 and come out clean with a new management. Could be the best thing that can
happen to them and users of their computers. At the same time, they may offer
a preview of what's in store for ATC. Although I personally suspect that Time
Warner will make sure ATC survives, even as a division in their empire, if
necessary. Maybe TW could buy up the remains of Amiga technology and put it
into their new Atari division. It's pretty good stuff, I hear. :-)
--Sandy
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Message 128 Tue Mar 29, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 03:56 EST
John L - -
That's a great prognostication. The caterpillers are hatching in abundance it
seems. What a gale is brewing!
You were quite prescient last summer/fall with your fractal interpretations,
although you were reluctant to put them up here. But you did encourage me to
look into it. There is a serious course on Fractals offered in NYC for Wall
Street professionals. I was thinking of taking it, but it costs $600 for one
full day, and I'm not a professional so no one will pay my tuition. So I
think I'll wait and try to find something more to read.
If your "just above 20 in mid May" works out, I'll definitely sign up for the
next offering of that course. I'm holding some call options which will pay
the tuition -- if you are right. I'll even suggest to the school that they
bring you to NYC as a guest lecturer. But if you are wrong, I'll chase you
down in Texas. :-)
BTW, I saw a fractal pattern some time back which required a lengthy stay
within a narrow trading range before starting the next repetition. I remarked
on it here and demonstrated it in GEnieLamp. That "lengthy stay" turned out to
be correct, and I thought the first "break out" up to 7 1/2 -- a few weeks ago
-- marked the beginning of the next repetition. I suspect you see the
breakout last Friday as the start of the next repetition, and I can agree with
that.
If my long cycle is turning up, we may even have similar targets. However, I
am still waiting for confirmation of that turn up, which may become evident
any day now. The price has to get above the peak reached by the next earlier
"40 day" cycle. That used to be at 8 1/8, but now another "40 day" has
completed its cycle, and its peak was at 7 1/2. It was disturbing to see last
Friday's breakout reach 7 1/2 within minutes, but then stay under that for the
rest of ther day. Then it touched 7 1/2 again this morning, but quickly fell
back to 7 and stayed there all day. If it gets above 7 1/2, preferably even
above 8, within a few days, I think we are off the launching pad. Otherwise
....?
--Sandy
PS: If you're right about Atari being in the right place at the right time
with an MPEG2 cartridge for "movies on demand", that might be just the
justification Time-Warner needs to bring Atari into its fold -- something I
have been ruminating on recently. $8.50/share is just the price T-W would
have to pay for just enough new shares to own 50% and cancel the debt
remaining from when they sold ATC to Tramiel. Seems to fit. ;-)
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Message 129 Tue Mar 29, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 05:55 EST
Sandy,
Glad to know those are "rules-of-thumb." I'd noticed these short term fluxes
and even based my last prediction on them (when the last climb didn't reach 8
by Wed.)
Would you say that good news on a Monday holds the price up better than good
news on a Friday (that is, Friday news causes a strong rise because people
want to get "into" it before the weekend but start to wonder over the weekend
and sell off whereas Monday news gets to wend it's way through the week and
ends up a stronger rise overall)? Maybe a "rule-of-pinky."
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
------------
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Message 130 Tue Mar 29, 1994
J.HICKEY6 at 10:11 EST
Sandy, It's time I downloaded one of your charts. Also, I'll have to take
another look at Stalk the Market. Does it provide scripting for Aladdin to
download historical quotes? I just DL'd 6 months of Syquest daily quotes on
the othevice($.05 ea.) and put them in an LDW Power spreadsheet. Now
I'll try throwing in the weekends.
Are quotes on GEnie cheaper?
And, re: John L. and your call options - you might want to hedge a little with
some PUT's at 5(7-1/2's are a bit expensive).
Anyone - what ever happened to Lee Isgur of Paine Webber? I still have my
copy of Isgur Portfolio. Lee was an early supporter of Atari(he thought the
Lynx would be their salvation).
Jack
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 131 Tue Mar 29, 1994
SL-DEV [Michael] at 13:49 EST
Sandy: I checked the quotes on cis today and cbu was listed at .75, down 2.25
I believe. The attached notes said trading was suspended while the nyse
reviewed whether to allow trading to continue. I guess lots of sellers, and no
buyers. Depressing.
Michael @ Soft-Logik Publishing Corp.
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Message 132 Tue Mar 29, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 17:11 EST
Trading on CBU was halted Monday also. I think it is currently 'trading' @
$0.75. Anyone wanna try a Gene Windell? <grin>
--Kevin
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 133 Tue Mar 29, 1994
SL-DEV [Michael] at 19:16 EST
Here's the story on Commodore...
Trading in Commodore's stock was halted on Monday when the stock fell to 75
cents a share with an unprecedented ratio of sellers to buyers. The NYSE kept
Comdr stock from sales for most of the day as they reviewed its elegibility
for continued listing. It was traded again The stock will not be available for
overnight trading. Cmdr's chief financial officer was unavailable to speak
with nyse officials monday and tuesday. (Probably in the bahamas after the
quarterly report. ;-) Jeff Porter, director of advanced technology, said "We
have every intention of restructuring."
Michael
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 134 Tue Mar 29, 1994
J.BATTEY1 [J. L. Battey] at 21:03 EST
Sandy,
ACK!! EEEK!! YOWEE!! ZOUNDS!!!
I hope no one ANYWHERE takes your "guest lecturer" line seriously! I am by no
means qualified for such as that. This is all good clean fun here amomngst
friends & interested adversaries, but let's not anyone get carried away.
If I am lucky enough to be right on this call, I might give serious thought to
hitching up to NYC and forking over the $600.00 just to find out why.
As to the MPEG2 thing, Brodie, in the Novenmber RTC, said that Sam Tramiel was
emphasizing this feature at the NY roll-out. I noticed at the time that most
people seemed not to be listening.
John L.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 135 Tue Mar 29, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:00 EST
ISSUER: ATARI CORP.
FILER: TIME WARNER INC. et al
CLASS: COMMON
SHARES OWNED: 15,770,000 26.8%
NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION:
On 2/24/94 Time Warner agreed to buy 1.5 million Atari common
shares at $8.50 per share, subject to certain conditions. In addition,
Atari has agreed to issue Time Warner up to an additional 150,000 shares
upon the occurrence of certain events.
Furthermore, Time Warner has been granted an option to buy up
to 1.5 million shares upon the occurrence of certain events prior to
10/1/94
(END) FEDERAL FILINGS-DOW JONES NEWS 03-29-94
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 136 Tue Mar 29, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:03 EST
Sir F_ - -
There have been serious studies made on the trading tendencies of different
days of the week, month, and year. The Market Logic newsletter has published
some of them, and actually has a trading system based upon them which seems to
be successful. It buys into a mutual fund for only the days expected to be
positive by their studies, and sells out after the day or days is done. They
run some real time portfolios doing this.
One advantage is that they are invested only some small percentage of the
time, perhaps 20% of all business days. This greatly reduces the risk. They
claim that perhaps 60% or more of a year's advance in price is actually
attributable to these 20% of the days. For example, they have found that the
last few days of the month and the first day or two of the next month are
statistically positive. Also the days surrounding holidays. By being
invested only on these days, they have good odds working for them. They apply
no other criteria to whether or not they invest, such as bear or bull market,
interest rates, etc. It's predetermined which calander days to be invested and
which to be in cash.
I've thought of trying this, but haven't gotten around to it yet. Also, it
takes most of the excitement out of the game. I think I'd go bonkers having
to sit out 80% of the time, waiting for just those particular days. I may try
it with some part of my funds.
There are other such situations. I'm sure you've heard of the "January
effect" -- which seems to come earlier each year. I have tried this one, and
made some good trades.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 137 Tue Mar 29, 1994
D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 22:27 EST
|> >From: narowetz@slab.unt.edu (Scott Narowetz)
|> >Subject: Atari in the Wall Street Journal
|> >Date: Tue, 29 Mar 1994 01:51:33 GMT
|> >Hopefully this will make it out (our school's system has been messed up
all
|> >day). Here's a scan of today's WSJ. Looks like Atari bit it profit-
wise.
|> >Hopefully the cash infusion from Time Warner will help get the Jag out
the
|> >door. Here goes...
|> Opps, messed up (got the silly thing in REVERSE)
|> LET'S TRY IT AGAIN....
|> Atari Loss Widened During 4th period As Sales Fell 67%
|> By a Wall Street Journal Staff Reporter
|>
|> Sunnyvale, Calif. - Atari Corp. reported a wider fourth-quarter
|> loss on a 67% drop in sales and warned that it won 't be profitable
|> until it cranks up shipments of its new Jaguar video game product.
|> But the game maker's stock rose 87.5 cents to $7.375 in
|> American Stock Exchange trading on news that Atari got a
|> cash infusion from Time Warner Inc., which bought $12.8 million of
|> Atari stock, boosting its stake to 27% from 25%. Separately, Atari
|> said rival Nintendo of America Inc. settled a lawsuit alleging
|> Nintendo had infringed on an Atari patent for horizontal scrolling
|> in video games. Terms weren't disclosed. Nintendo of America is
|> a unit of Nintendo Co. of Japan.
|> Atari's Loss for the quarter was $22.6 million, or 39 cents a
|> share, after a $12.1 million charge for writing down inventory and
|> a $6 million restructuring charge. In the year-earlier quarter,
|> Atari had a loss of $21.9 million, or 39 cents a share. Sales fell
|> to $8.5 million from $25.5 million.
|> Analysts said the results were in line with expectations,
|> given Atari's switch from selling computers in Europe to selling
|> video games in the U.S. The "implosion on the revenue line was not
|> unexpected," Gruntal & Co. analyst Charles Lemonides said. He added
|> that the Time Warner cash infusion "was a big vote of confidence."
|> In a statement, Atari said it has "substantially completed"
|> its transition to selling video games. The game maker's future
|> hinges largely on the success of its full-motion,
|> graphics-intensive Jaguar games, which are now selling in San
|> Francisco, New York and Los Angeles. In a statement, the company
|> said that because of increased spending to market the games "we do
|> not expect to achieve profitability" until Jaguar ships in
|> substantial volume. "
|> Atari and Nintendo contradicted each other about the outlines
|> of Friday's patent-infringement settlement. Atari said in a
|> statement that Nintendo had paid cash to settle and to license
|> Atari patents. But Nintendo said in its own statement that it
|> received "certain payments and patent licenses on a royalty-free
|> basis from Atari." An Atari spokesman replied that "Nintendo is
|> full of it." Atari has a similar suit pending against Sega of
|> America Inc., a unit of Japan's Sega Enterprises Ltd.
|> Separately, Nintendo said it and Atari Games Corp. -
|> which is separate from Atari Corp. - settled all patent litigation
|> between them concerning alleged patent infringement and antitrust
|> violations, Nintendo didn't elaborate. Atari Games Corp. is 78%
|> owned by Time Warner, which is also a major investor in Atari Corp.
___________________
\hunderbird
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 138 Tue Mar 29, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:49 EST
Jack - -
If you do more than 1 or 2 charts per month, and you do it on an ST, I
strongly recommend you get Stalk The Market. It has drivers for d/ling data
from several services; however I only use DJN/R and GEnie, so I can't vouch
for the others. It has a special driver for GEnie's Current Quotes (p270)
which I find most convenient for daily updating. A portfolio of about 25
stocks takes about 1 minute on GEnie (about 5 cents each night) to d/l the
day's data. All you do is select a portfolio of stock symbols (STM allows 4
portfolios) and the data service, then press 'download' and sit back and wait.
STM takes over and does it all. When it returns control to you, all the
existing charts have been updated, or new ones created. It has provision for
tranfering data to and from LDW and other spread sheets.
If you want to see some examples of STM charts, look at my GEnieLamp articles.
Next 'Lamp' will be in the library in a few days; or look at the mid-month
reports which were set up specifically for my stuff. I will soon be making
charts in color, although I am perfectly satisfied with mono.
As for Lee Isgur: I have his 'Portfolio' but have never used it; his role in
creating this program was just as an advisor. If you use it, let me know what
you think. Lee Isgur has 3 main talents, none of which he carries off very
well, imho. He is a stock broker. He gets quoted in San Francisco newspapers
from time to time, mostly on Atari stories, and mostly nonsense. He is a
competitive sailor of some reputation and does TV commentary on some of the
major sailing competitions. His best talent, imho, is staying married to his
wife who is a world class competitor in Olympic and long distance sailing.
Are you into SYQT? I've been watching it base out for a few months and jumped
aboard when it seemed to beakout. It was one of the few stocks to buck
today's hurricane.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 139 Tue Mar 29, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 23:50 EST
John L - -
If you are right, your name will be known all over Wall Street. That's what
comes of going public. :-)
If you are wrong, it will pass as the dawn, and your life will go on without
change. So what you got to lose?
>> "As to the MPEG2 thing .... I noticed at the time that most people seemed
not to be listening." <<
You are correct. I didn't notice it, and I don't recall anyone else
mentioning it. Yet it could be the best weapon in Atari's arsenal, the reason
for it's being saved from bankruptcy. So much for F/A.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 140 Wed Mar 30, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:01 EST
T-Bird - -
That WSJ report seems dramatic, but it means nil. The only financial factor
which means anything for Atari these days is CASH. They need some more
because Jaguar production is still slowed by technical problems. So TWX
stepped up and delivered. Or else there would be no Atari by summer.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 141 Wed Mar 30, 1994
GENIELAMP.ST [John G] at 01:48 EST
Sandy,
I promise, I promise! <owwww!>
John
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 142 Wed Mar 30, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:30 EST
I just want to shake the hand of the Atari official who stated, "Nintendo is
full of it!" <grin>
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 143 Wed Mar 30, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] at 08:07 EST
Sandy,
You indicate that Jaguar production is being slowed by technical problems. I
am not so sure of that. I can think of two other reasons to slow production..
1) They need cash to pay for delivery and float terms with the bigger
dcustomers. 2) They may be holding back until more "killer" titles are
available. You don't want to saturate the market until you can build a huge
demand. There is demand at this point but I wouldn't call it huge.
- TOM -
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 144 Wed Mar 30, 1994
J.HICKEY6 at 08:33 EST
Sandy, I did use Isgur Portfolio for a few years, but never was able to get
the "updates" with IS Talk(the included telecom program). It really was a
nice package otherwise. Unfortunately, it was bought out by Atari haters at
Electronic Arts, and put in the closet.
Yes, I am into Syquest, and capture all their press releases using ENS on the
other service. Do daily quotes on GEnie flag news items? I'll have to give it
another try. I hope it's faster than the last time I used it(but then that
was through the Schwab RT). STM sounds like it's worth checking out.
Jack
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 145 Wed Mar 30, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:07 EST
OK, lets take this apart-
On 2/24/94 Time Warner agreed to buy 1.5 million Atari common
shares at $8.50 per share, subject to certain conditions. In addition,
Atari has agreed to issue Time Warner up to an additional 150,000 shares
upon the occurrence of certain events.
Furthermore, Time Warner has been granted an option to buy up
to 1.5 million shares upon the occurrence of certain events prior to
1/10/94.
"On 2/24/94 Time Warner agreed to buy 1.5 million Atari common
shares at $8.50 per share, subject to certain conditions."
Is that date right? or should it say 3/24/94?
What certain conditions are they refering to?
"In addition, Atari has agreed to issue Time Warner up to an
additional 150,000 shares upon the occurrence of certain events."
Occurrence of what events?
"Furthermore, Time Warner has been granted an option to buy up to 1.5
million shares upon the occurrence of certain events prior to
10/01/94."
Again, what events? And why is the date of 10/01/94 important?
Carson
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 146 Wed Mar 30, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 14:08 EST
Tom - -
You are probably correct about the production slowdown. I was trying to give
Atari the benefit of the doubt that the slowdown is due to circumstances
beyond their control.
OTOH, your point that "They need cash to pay for delivery and float terms
with the bigger customers" assumes IBM is not paying for production costs and
taking all customer payments directly. That could be a way around ATC's low
cash position, if IBM is so inclined.
Waiting for more titles is very reasonable.
Carson - - Good questions. Your interpretation of what's going on -- and
anyone elses -- would be welcome. My guess is on TW taking over. But this is
all in the realm of F/A, which is not my thing.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 147 Wed Mar 30, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 14:08 EST
Jack - -
GEnie Current Quotes ('CQ' on page 270) only provides the current and previous
days' Hi/Lo/Close/Vol. It gets updated every business day about 7:30 pm. No
news. Runs fast, about 2 secs per issue, including stocks and mutual funds.
Allows you to pre-establish lists of 30 symbols max each -- ie with your
function keys, or with the STM portfolio list.
DJN/R has a $30/month non-prime time deal which I use for historical quotes,
news and PRs, insider trading, S&P reports, and lots more.
--Sandy
BTW, why spend all that prime time money on news bulletins and PRs? Seems to
me to be a big drain on your funds, and is 99% meaningless. How often have you
made a sudden decision to trade because of such an item? I can only recall
doing one in the past year, and that was triggered by a news item on CNBC. It
wasn't yet on his screen when I immediately called my broker to sell me out.
The stock went from 9 1/2 to 6 1/2 in 10 minutes; then CNBC said the reporter
had made an error. I immediately called my broker and bought back in at a
lower price than I had sold 15 minutes earlier. The correction was also not
yet on the broker's screen when I called back. He was rather surprised by it
all. The next day, the stock was at 13. If I had a habit of searching online
for news items during the day, the whole affair would have been over before I
found out what was going on.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 148 Wed Mar 30, 1994
ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 16:27 EST
Steve-J, remember that T-Bird quoted that from the Internet, so I imagine
it's not an exact quote. :-)
Tom, I think you're right about Atari being cash strapped because of floats.
Somehow I don't think EB and Babbages are paying cash-up-front for their
Jag's, so Atari has to roll their ready cash until the payments from them come
in. The nice thing about the Time-Warner booster shot is that there will be
more cash to roll with, meaning more units in the pipe each month.
Carson, on the first stock trade I think the main condition is SEC approval.
On the other two... who knows. Maybe on the condition that the stock rises
above 8.5 by October? :-)
Charlie/sysop
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 149 Wed Mar 30, 1994
B.AEIN [B Man] at 23:24 EST
What do you think would happen if Atari came out with a press release saying
that Mortal Kombat II was being developed for the Jag?
Would the stock serg then fall back, or possibly start on it's upward trek?
Could we possibly see a short squeez? What if the Jag was the only game
system MKII is going to be released on???
I may know something, then again it may be bunk, only time will tell.
Bman
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 150 Thu Mar 31, 1994
E.EPPERSON [Ed] at 01:48 EST
I don't know what date the 1.5 million was supposed to trade (Feb or Mar) but
it's apparently done! News at 2151 EST states that "Warner Comm reports
26.80% ownership of ATARI" That's very close to the 27% which was estimated
(relative to the 25% they owned previously).
Ed
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 151 Thu Mar 31, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 02:19 EST
<<I just want to shake the hand of the Atari official who stated, "Nintendo is
full of it!" <grin> >>
I agree. It's about time someone bit back at Nintendo. From what I
understand, although Atari may not have worded it to Nintendo's liking, they
_did_ end up with money after all was said and done. (knowing Nintendo, I
wouldn't be surprised if they confused Corp. with Games!!)
Anyone care to elaborate on the WMS deal? Seeing as how they are a Jaguar
developer and EDGE magazine has them in a hardware deal to produce MKIII
(rumor?) _AND_ how they've dumped Acclaim to do their own games, how should
this affect Atari?
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 152 Thu Mar 31, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 05:29 EST
K.DRAKE - I just love it when people use that kind of raw language in a press
statement! That's how I'D sound, being the sarcasm monger that I am. <grin>
Nintendo -- What a bunch of pipe-smokers! <grin>
What's this about WMS doing it OWN development? I didn't know that THAT was
why they reportedly weren't going to renew Acclaim's MK license. I guess they
were getting tired of just getting a PIECE of the console sales! <grin>
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 153 Thu Mar 31, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 07:51 EST
Steve-J,
You a "Sarcasm Monger"??? :) Never. I give that title to T-Bird. <grin>
--Kevin
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 154 Fri Apr 01, 1994
R.WHITTAM [Ron - ABUG] at 02:29 EST
The JAGUAR is being advertized on TV in Boise, Idaho. Does this mean that
production is back up? I have often wondered if such advertizing actually
effects the stock price? When people see a GOOD advertizing don't they just
buy the product - - - or does it make those in the stock market sit up and
take notice as well?
- Ron
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 155 Fri Apr 01, 1994
STEVE-J [DrHfuhruhurr] at 06:54 EST
PG.MUSIC - Doug's more of a HYPE monger. <grin>
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 156 Fri Apr 01, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 08:07 EST
Steve-J,
:)
--Kevin
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 161 Sat Apr 02, 1994
PG.MUSIC [PG-Kevin!] at 12:41 EST
Oh, a "sarcasm" monger?
--Kevin
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 163 Sat Apr 02, 1994
G.CROSS [Jerry] at 16:32 EST
What is it with the Canadian's in Windsor? Why no Atari support? There is a
computer store here in Flint that is trying to support Atari. He told me that
he had a guy from Canada come over and discovered that he could get some
European mags here for only $9.95. He said over in Canada they were $15 (when
he could find them).
Now, I'm happy to help out, but he took the last copy! MY COPY!!!
;( sniff.....
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 164 Sat Apr 02, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 20:28 EST
Hey! I'm watching the NY Mets play the Texas Rangers, and there is a Jaguar
ad. And a second one! Good show.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 165 Sun Apr 03, 1994
TOWNS [John] at 00:28 EST
Well.. I will say this, if there was some sort of plan a couple of years ago
to "clear the decks for Jaguar" then I was never aware of it.
The bottom line in my mind is that the Tramiels are in the business of making
money. There are willing to do something as long as there is a profit in it.
The facts are that the computer side of things hasn't been very profitable as
of late. (BTW.. it could be argued that the entire company hasn't been too
successful in the past 3 or so years.) And by theway, the view of being in it
for the profit is not a bad one. You can bet your last dollar that Bill Gates
is in this game for the money. He isn't doing it because he loves us and wants
us to be happy.
I do remember hearing about Jaguar a long time ago. But, it was more of an
idea and a research project. Atari funded it and hoped that their investment
would pay off. But, I certainly don't think that the cleared the decks for
Jaguar back then. They would have been foolish to do so.
Anyway, that's me thoughts.
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 168 Sun Apr 03, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 14:03 EDT
--- several posts below --- (that's how Aladdin works!)
In Message 163 on Sat Apr 02, 1994
G.CROSS [Jerry] said:
-| he had a guy from Canada come over and discovered that he could get some
-| European mags here for only $9.95. He said over in Canada they were $15
-| (when he could find them).
I believe Canada recently started (or increased) a MAGAZINE TAX that's rather
significant... though 50% seems a bit more than significant!!
------------
In Message 154 on Fri Apr 01, 1994
R.WHITTAM [Ron - ABUG] said:
-| When people see a GOOD advertizing don't they just buy the product - - -
-| or does it make those in the stock market sit up and take notice as
-| well?
For me, the stock analysis takes enough time that I rarely get to see such
ads, so it makes no never-mind! I buy and sell stock depending on the charts
and news; but there are many others who do it just on "instinct" or maybe even
on good ads.
------------
Has anyone fathomed the exact difference between Atari Corp. and Atari Games
Corp?
The news articles seem to take great pains to point out that they are
different and seperate, yet there seems to be significant 'ties' between them,
also.
Jim W2JC in Northern NJ
--... ...-- -.. . .-- ..--- .--- -.-. -.-
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 170 Sun Apr 03, 1994
C.LABELLE [Tintin] at 14:16 EDT
Jerry,
With the devaluation of the CDN$, 10$ US is just about equal to 15$ CDN.
Anyway, can't you _reserve_ your copy? Most stores will do that.
In Ottawa, the magazines sell for 7.50$ to 9.95$ CDN.
As for Atari support, well you know, since the closure of Atari Canada, not
much is going on. Except dealers closing.
Right now, the plan is: stop supporting all products anywhere but the Jaguar
in the US. And maybe keep the Falcon in the music niche. That way they have
a chance in making money. My vision is, after and if they become highly
successful with the Jaguar, then they will start selling computers again. And
it will be a new Falcon.
The current Falcon, despite all its features, is still not competive for
selling without educating the public. Probably the best bet would be to sell
it as a 486 (with Falcon Speed). And then let the customers discover its
wonders on the Atari side. In any case, Atari doesn't have the cash to market
it. Heck, they are striving for cash to market the Jaguar.
Tintin
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 171 Sun Apr 03, 1994
AEO.1 [Albert Dayes] at 16:46 EDT
Ron Whittam.
Atari Corp does home video games and computers while Atari Games does the
arcade games. Games like Hard Drivin. STeel Talons and soon M-Tek are some of
the many different games the Atari Games has come out with.
Since they share the same name Atari they need to make sure that everyone
knows they are different companies.
-- Albert
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 173 Sun Apr 03, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 19:27 EDT
NY Times Magazine, Sunday April 3, crossword puzzle.
Clue for '1 Down': "Arcade Name" (5 letters)
Correct word: "Atari"
= - =
T-Bird and Steve-J:
You 2 guys, whoever you are, have had many interesting things to say
about Atari. I have never figured out how you get your information.
So why not keep that up and forget the other?
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 174 Sun Apr 03, 1994
A.FASOLDT [Al Fasoldt] at 19:42 EDT
John,
Thanks for the insight.
Al
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 179 Thu Apr 07, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 01:15 EDT
O.K. Now it appears that the 6.5 mark that I mentioned in an earlier post has
been breached and is now holding the stock down rather than bouying it up.
It's not really ditching but I don't like the idea of the stock being this
low.
One good thing (maybe?) is that over the past few days, there haven't been
that many shares traded. Would that mean investor confidence.
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 180 Fri Apr 08, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:59 EDT
Sir - -
Your 6 1/2 seems to be serving as a center for minor fluctuations.
It seems the '21' day cycle moved its full amplitude in one day, up to 7 1/2.
The hurricane that hit these precincts evidently threw the cycles, and just
about every other T/A approach, into "blooey" land.
One good thing about T/A is that it gives one a handle on decision making.
IE, it provides entry and exit points of various degrees of risk. In the case
of ATC, no entry point of reasonable risk has shown up for some time, so a
prudent T/Aer would have avoided buying into ATC, and other blunders, during
this period. I picked up a few options, and I'll probably see them disappear
without a whimper.
At this time, ATC has been awarded 1st prize for 'Most Frustrating Stock of
the Week'.
--Sandy
------------
Category 14, Topic 44
Message 181 Sat Apr 09, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 00:59 EDT
Sandy !
"blooey-land" !!!
Ah, I know it well. Seems like I've spent my life there!
Matt
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 182 Mon Apr 11, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:36 EDT
The doldrums? Guess this is what they feel like.
In cycle terms, the 21 day cycle for ATC started anew on March 25, so it
peaked on April 5-6, and was heading down the rest of last week and next week.
Next longer cycle also seems to be on the downside, so things look a bit dour
for a while longer. Has to get above 7 1/2 for a high risk buy signal, and
above 8 1/8 for a low risk buy. Fortunately, for now, the amplitudes seem to
have flattened out.
Where ATC was a model example of T/A until January, it has evidently decided
to play coy since. All us T/Aers can do is watch and wait until the chart
says otherwise.
I have put together a group of charts for 16 stocks which have been mentioned
in these precincts at one time or another. Packed into 4 pictures, in the mid-
month GEnieLamp.ST. Should appear in the library "soon". Much there to
contemplate.
--Sandy
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 183 Mon Apr 11, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:52 EDT
Sandy,
No one has said it in a while (though I'm sure we are all thinking it) but,
thanks for sharing your unique insights about T/A & ATC. I recently purchased
Stalk the Market & as soon as time permits, I'm goimg to sit down with it &
all your charts and articles.
Carson
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 184 Tue Apr 12, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 01:51 EDT
An interesting excerpt:
"April 11, 1994--Three Time Warner Inc. game and multimedia units Monday have
announced that they plan to integrate their operations. The units are Time
Warner Interactive Group, Atari Games Corp. and Tengen Inc. They will operate
under the common name, Time Warner Interactive."
"The new structure will allow the organization to develop and publish
interactive consumer entertainment products that span across all platforms
from location and coin-op video games, to plug-n-play cartridges for Sega and
Nintendo systems, CD-ROM entertainment tiles (for game-based machines as well
as computer platforms) and interactive TV applications."
"... the company's combined international sales force will effectively reach
all channels of retail distribution ranging from toy and computer stores, to
record and video outlets and consumer electronic stores... These will range
across eight consumer platforms, including MPC, DOS and Mac CD-ROM, Sega
Genesis and Mega Drive, Sega CD, Super Nintendo and Sega Game Gear.''
_ _ _
So where is any mention of 30% owned ATC and Jaguar?
= - =
Carson - -
Thanks for the spontaneous sentiments. Just a note to let any reader know
that I didn't pay you for that :-)
--Sandy
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 185 Tue Apr 12, 1994
M.LYDA [mike] at 18:08 EDT
Sandy;
Atari Games Corp. was listed as a Jaguar developer wasn't it? And I
remember seeing a small article in Computer Graphics World last Fall (I
think..) that announced Atari Games Corp. had signed on as a 3DO developer for
their arcade games..... and now they have merged with Time Warner IG to
develop Nintendo and Sega related products. hmmmm what a tangled web they
weave.
Who was the press release from? If Time Warner, could they have simply
listed products (Nintendo, Sega) that the Wall Street types would be familiar
with? Although it said the products would "range across eight consumer
platforms" it included MPC which will be available on many platforms other
than the ones listed, right?
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 186 Tue Apr 12, 1994
M.RIVMAN1 [MATT] at 22:33 EDT
Sandy,
curiouser and curiouser!
Matt
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 187 Tue Apr 12, 1994
M.DEVER1 [mike] at 23:04 EDT
Hi guys, In Philadelphia, I've just seen Jaguar adds on mtv between 11:30 and
12 midnight.
Also, the stock should pick up ( in my opinion )
the local store Games Gallery is out of Jaguars,
and out of Tempest 2000. Just thought you'd like to know. Mike
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 188 Wed Apr 13, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:24 EDT
Mike - -
It was a TW announcement. But don't ask me to interpret it -- although my
excerpting probably influences what you see. I put it up here to see what
others think. I gave up trying to understand these things long ago where ATC
is concerned.
Meanwhile, all the major cycles are now pointing down. And, as a result, ATC
is plumbing the depths. This I understand, at least better than I do Atari's
relationship with Time Warner.
--Sandy
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 189 Wed Apr 13, 1994
STEVE-J [EeEckyThump!] at 04:52 EDT
Any idea why Electronic Arts's stock dropped 2 1/4 points on heavy trading
(2.5 million shares) Monday?
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 190 Wed Apr 13, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 09:40 EDT
I hate it when ATC dips below 6. I'm always tempted to buy more. I just have
to learn to sell it when its up & buy it all back when it dips. Actually I'm
in it for the long run so I patiently wait.
Carson
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 191 Wed Apr 13, 1994
M.DEVER1 [mike] at 21:43 EDT
My local store, Games Gallery, has been restocked with Jaguars and
Tempest 2000. It's really great to see IBM handle shipping
in such a professional manner. The store is rarely out of stock
for more than 3 days.
The machine seems to be selling steadily, and this is April.
Can any of you tell me if Philadelphia is the norm, are
other stores seling the Jag as well?
Mike / Philadelphia
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 192 Wed Apr 13, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:06 EDT
Steve-J [isthatu?] - -
I forget the details, but rumors hit Broderbund which dropped 8%. Other things
being equal, on a combined basis ERTS should have dropped about 2% or 1/2
point. But other things are not equal in today's market, so ERTS dropped 11%.
--Sandy
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 193 Wed Apr 13, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 22:07 EDT
In an announcement by Atari, the following quotes appeared:
"Tempest 2000 is the hottest selling title on Jaguar today," said Peter
Roithmayr, senior buyer at Electronics Boutique. "We sold over 60 percent of
our Tempest 2000 stock within four days; most sold in the first two days of
shelf life. Tempest 2000 is in very high demand because the popularity of the
Jaguar has far exceeded the gaming industry's expectations."
"Tempest, by itself, is worth the price of the Jag -- Tempest 2000 for
Jaguar is further proof that the next level of gaming has arrived," said Dave
Halverson, DieHard GameFan. So, why has ATC dropped to 5 3/4? Those danged
cycles....
--Sandy
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 194 Thu Apr 14, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 02:10 EDT
In Message 188 on Wed Apr 13, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] said:
-| Meanwhile, all the major cycles are now pointing down. And, as a
-| result, ATC is plumbing the depths. This I understand, at least better
-| than I do Atari's relationship with Time Warner.
Sure is doing my margin in! Argh! even us tekies get caught once in a while!
My only consolation this week is bragging about all the stocks i DID get out
of before they dropped... or I'd be getting margin calls, for sure.
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 195 Thu Apr 14, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] at 08:22 EDT
Carson,
<<I hate it when ATC dips below 6.>>
I know what you mean. The lower the buy, the quicker it doubles. If it goes
to 5 though, you can just say that another $500 of my money has went Atari's
way. :)
Sandy,
What do the charts say as far as how low Atari _can_ go?
Still Sailing,
Sir Fransis
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 196 Thu Apr 14, 1994
ARCHIVIST [Charlie] at 18:16 EDT
Mike, it seems to be so in every city the Jaguar is currently released in.
Come join us in Category 26, which is ALL about the Jaguar.
Charlie/sysop
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 197 Thu Apr 14, 1994
D.ENGEL [Thunderbird] at 19:03 EDT
To whom it may concern:
This is the topic for Atari stockholders to talk in... NOT the Jaguar sales
reports topic.
Also, if you're NOT a stockholder then you don't belong in this topic. There
can be no exceptions. We must follow the rules and regulations set forth in
the contract you signed when you applied for this service.
Thank you for your cooperation.
________________________
\hunderbird
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 198 Thu Apr 14, 1994
J.BRENNER1 [See Flat] at 19:57 EDT
T-Bird,
what ruffled your feathers?
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 199 Thu Apr 14, 1994
M.DEVER1 [mike] at 22:28 EDT
Sorry ThunderBird,
But I thought that the number of machines that sell has a direct
baring on the price of the stock. I would think that a wall
street analyst would be looking for clue's as to how well atari
is doing in this quarter. first quarter 1994.
An analyst would want to know, before the madding crowd,
what kind of numbers atari is likely to report for this quarter.
I've seen the stock move for two different reasons:
1) Press releases... NEWS
2) Quarterly reports... the Money.
Sorry, I'm in the wrong topic.
Mike in Philly
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 200 Thu Apr 14, 1994
C.UNDERWOOD1 [Carson] at 23:55 EDT
Mike in Philly,
I didn't see anything wrong with your post. Maybe T-Bird is/was having a bad
day. The guy is a wealth of good information & it is appreciated.
But,.........
>if you're NOT a stockholder then you don't belong in this topic.
I have to disagree. I'm sure I'm not the only one that became a stockholder
after I had frequented this topic. I have learned a wealth of information from
everyone here. If the stock goes much lower I'm sure many more will be joining
our ranks. :)
Carson
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 201 Fri Apr 15, 1994
SL-DEV [Michael] at 00:17 EDT
>Also, if you're NOT a stockholder then you don't belong in this topic. There
>can be no exceptions. We must follow the rules and regulations set forth in
>the contract you signed when you applied for this service.
What kind of nonsense is this? Let me check the topic header...
"Here is the place for discussion and information for stock holders and other
interested parties of any news and events concerning ATARI stock."
The topic header clearly states that the topic is for anybody interested in
Atari stock.
Take a chill pill.
Michael
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 202 Fri Apr 15, 1994
J.NESS [Jim] at 00:34 EDT
Sandy -
re: sales are good, why is the stock down...
You have to remember that so far all these hot sales are peanuts. If Atari
has shipped 2500 copies of Tempest (unlikely), they've probably billed
$50,000. That's nothing for stock traders to get excited about.
How many Jaguars have been shipped? Maybe by now they've hit 50,000? So
that's maybe $8M total? Is THAT enough to impress shareholders? Probably
not, considering the losses claimed for the past many quarters.
Atari still hasn't shifted out of 1st gear with this product, and that's got
to make people a little leary about investing.
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 203 Fri Apr 15, 1994
S.WOLF4 [Sandy] at 00:44 EDT
If anybody here remembers that 21 day cycle which gave us one morning of
excitement on March 25, after helping push ATC down these past days it has
reached the next turning point. Yup, here we are again, 21 days later. That
cycle should turn up Friday or over the weekend, and give ATC a brief respite
from the duldrums. Unfortunately, the '42' day is topping and heading down,
and the '120+' day, which I saw as starting up early in January, is due to
bottom out in another 2-3 weeks.
So, a few days of respite, followed by a couple weeks of riding the slide,
then possibly we can get the show back on the road. Amplitudes have been
small, so price movements should not be too large, but 5 is not out of the
question. Thanks for small things.
Meanwhile, Mike in Philly, don't fall for that hooey from T-Bird. He's just
jealous. This topic is for any and all, even if you depend upon the NEWS and
the quarterly reports. The NEWS is hooey, and who can figure out those ATC
quarterlies? If you want to see a load of great news, look at the wire
reports on 3DO these past weeks. Yet the stock is going down as fast as ATC,
maybe faster. Or look at WDC, its news fooled the pros on Wall Street into
thinking they'll be earning $2.50+ in 1995 -- ie a $35 - $40 stock. So why
has it dropped like a brick? Watch this topic for the REAL whys.
The GEnieLamp mid-month is in the library, file 32582 for mono, 32584 for
color. Has charts of 16 stocks, as of last Friday, when they were mostly on
the verge. I think most have smashed through the verge this past week, on the
downside.
--Sandy
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 204 Fri Apr 15, 1994
AEO.MAG [?] Travis [?] at 01:01 EDT
//// Jim,
I hear they're going to skip 2nd, and pop straight into 3rd gear soon. ;)
//// Sandy,
Taking these three cycles into consideration, when's the next time two of them
are going to be uptrending? All three?
If all three take off in the timeframe I'm thinking of, we may have ourselves
a winner.
--Travis
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 205 Fri Apr 15, 1994
J.COOPER6 [Jim W2JC] at 07:36 EDT
In Message 195 on Thu Apr 14, 1994
K.DRAKE [Sir Fransis] said:
-| What do the charts say as far as how low Atari _can_ go?
ZERO ! Look at what happened to CBU ... last trade was at $3, but it's been
on hold for a week. Last bid I saw was something like 25c ...
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Category 14, Topic 44
Message 206 Fri Apr 15, 1994
ICDINC [Tom] at 10:28 EDT
Jim Ness,
While you may be close on the machine sales figures I would guess that Atari
has easily shipped 10K+ Tempest cartridges already. Of course these were not
all shipped through the online offer. :-)
- TOM -
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--
Fred Horvat
Free-Net Atari Portfolio Sigop
Atari Classic Gamer
And Let's Not Forget an ADAMite!
-----------------------------------------
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